我国夏季东部区域降水异常年代际、年际变化分析
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科技部社会公益研究专项资金“珠江流域广西境内流域面雨量预报与汛期洪涝监测业务体系研究”(37020)


Analysis on the Interdecadal and Interannual Variations of Regional Summer Rainfall Anomalies over Eastern China
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    摘要:

    用华南、江淮、华北代表站6—8月降水量标准化距平的区域平均值定义了降水异常指数I,论证了它与常用指数Z、R的一致性。不同区域I的同期相关不显著,表明3区降水年际异常具有独立性。用周期分析将I分解为年代际、年际变化指数Is、If,方差分析表明,只有华南区域Is在其I的构成中显著,表明区域夏季降水异常是复杂的。对Is、If曲线的分析表明,3个区域Is均表现出与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)20世纪70年代的转折有关的相关关系,华北区域If的显著偏少与强ElNino事件的同时性关系密切。

    Abstract:

    The index of regional rainfall anomaly(I index) is defined as the regional average of representative station′s JJA standardized rainfall anomaly in South China,Changjiang-Huaihe valley,and North China.And it is proved that I index is consistent with commonly used Z and R index.The correlation of I between different regions is insignificant,indicating that the interannual changes of summer rainfall are independent in the above three regions.The I index is decomposed into the interdecadal variation index (Is) and interannual variation index (If) by means of periodical analysis.And the variance analysis indicates that Is is significant among the components of I only in South China,suggesting that the regional rainfall anomaly in summer is complicated.The analysis of the curves of Is and If indicates that Is in the three regions is related to the 1970s′ transition of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO),and the significant negative anomaly of If in North China is contemporaneously close related to strong El Nino events.

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段明铿,王盘兴,林开平,2005.我国夏季东部区域降水异常年代际、年际变化分析[J].大气科学学报,28(1):93-100. DUAN Ming-keng, WANG Pan-xing, LIN Kai-ping,2005. Analysis on the Interdecadal and Interannual Variations of Regional Summer Rainfall Anomalies over Eastern China[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,28(1):93-100.

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  • 收稿日期:2003-11-20
  • 最后修改日期:2004-02-25
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