长江流域群发性高温事件变化:观测与预估
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国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF0805704)


Changes in cluster high-temperature events over the Yangtze River valley: observation and projection
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    摘要:

    基于观测资料和CMIP6统计降尺度模拟数据,识别了长江流域群发性高温事件。在此基础上,分析了其当前和未来的变化。结果表明:1961—2021年长江流域群发性高温事件频次、持续时间、累计强度和最大影响面积均呈上升趋势。SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下,长江流域群发性高温事件持续时间、累计强度和最大影响面积在21世纪期间将进一步上升,而且SSP5-8.5情景下的上升速率要比SSP2-4.5情景下的高。到21世纪末期,群发性高温事件持续时间和累计强度增幅最大的区域位于长江下游,重庆和四川盆地次之。长江流域群发性高温事件发生频次在21世纪50年代前上升明显,随后在SSP2-4.5情景下放缓,而在SSP5-8.5情景下则转为下降态势。到21世纪末期,群发性高温事件频次增幅最大的区域在SSP2-4.5情景下位于河南和湖北一带,而在SSP5-8.5情景下则位于四川盆地。另外,与现在相比,到21世纪末期,长江流域群发性高温事件出现时间在两种情景下均提前,且结束时间延后,故时间跨度增大。在这样背景下,未来长江流域受群发性高温事件影响的人口数将增加,并于21世纪50年代达到峰值。人口对群发性高温事件强度的暴露度在21世纪期间呈增大趋势,城市地区显著高于农村地区,SSP5-8.5情景下人口暴露度的增加尤为显著。

    Abstract:

    Using observational datasets and statistically downscaled CMIP6 model simulations,this study identifies cluster high-temperature events in the Yangtze River valley and examines their historical evolution and future projections.Results indicate significant increasing trends in the frequency,duration,cumulative intensity,and maximum influential area of such events from 1961 to 2021.Under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,the duration,cumulative intensity,and maximum influential area of cluster high-temperature events are projected to continue strengthening throughout the 21st century,with more pronounced increases under SSP5-8.5.By the late 21st century,the largest enhancements are expected to occur in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley,followed by Chongqing and the Sichuan Basin.The frequency of cluster high-temperature events shows a substantial rise until the 2050s,after which the trend moderates under SSP2-4.5 and reverses to a decline under SSP5-8.5.By the century's end,the greatest frequency increases under SSP2-4.5 are projected in Henan and Hubei,followed by Anhui,Jiangxi,Chongqing,and the Sichuan Basin;under SSP5-8.5,the strongest increases occur in the Sichuan Basin.Furthermore,cluster high-temperature events are projected to begin earlier and end later in the year,indicating an extended seasonal duration under both scenarios.In response to these changes,the affected population in the Yangtze River valley is projected to increase and peak around the 2050s.Population exposure to event intensity is also expected to rise steadily throughout the century,with larger increases in urban areas than in rural areas—particularly under SSP5-8.5.

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周波涛,涂雁冰,谢文欣,孙巧红,韩振宇,2026.长江流域群发性高温事件变化:观测与预估[J].大气科学学报,49(1):43-52.
ZHOU Botao, TU Yanbing, XIE Wenxin, SUN Qiaohong, HAN Zhenyu,2026. Changes in cluster high-temperature events over the Yangtze River valley: observation and projection[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,49(1):43-52. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20251115007

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-15
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-02
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