通用航空气象灾害监测与预报预警技术新进展
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中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室开放课题项目(2023LABL-B17);江苏省气象局科研项目(ZD202413);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025J116);中国气象局城市气象重点开放实验室开放基金项目(LUM-2023-15);北极阁基金项目(BJG202102);国家自然科学基金项目(42205197)


Forecasting and early warning technology development for general aviation meteorological hazards
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    摘要:

    随着“一带一路”背景下通用航空发展战略的实施与国家低空空域管理的改革,我国通用航空行业进入快速发展期,与之相匹配的专用机场建设需求呈现爆发式增长。低空天气预报和气象灾害监测成为影响通用航空发展的关键因素。本文通过梳理、比较已有研究成果,总结国内外通用航空气象灾害监测与预报预警技术的发展成果,以期为后续相关研究提供理论参考与经验借鉴。本文通过文献调研法与特征归纳法,对比分析并归纳总结了当前通用航空气象预报服务的研究进展与实践成果。文章具体从通用航空气象预报业务现状、影响通用航空安全的主要气象灾害要素、气象灾害的预报预警技术和通用航空气象服务的发展等4个方面梳理了已有国内外相关研究成果。后续有必要从通用航空相关气象灾害生消机理、监测预报预警技术研发、业务流程及相关政策法规工作等方面开展研究,进一步完善通用航空气象灾害预报预警系统,为全面推进公共运输航空与通用航空的战略部署提供坚实的科学基础和理论依据。

    Abstract:

    General aviation (GA) has experienced significant growth in China since its formal definition in 1986.The enactment of the Civil Aviation Law of the People's Republic of China in 1995 further clarified GA as civil aviation activities outside public air transport,encompassing industrial,agricultural,humanitarian,and emergency services.This expansion has been driven by improvements in industry regulations,infrastructure development,and ongoing airspace reforms.However,meteorological services for GA remain a critical area for improvement.
    The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake underscored the vital role of GA in disaster relief,despite limitations in communication and meteorological support.Since then,GA has expanded into various sectors,including tourism,mapping,and logistics,making substantial contributions to economic and social development.By the end of 2022,China had 399 registered GA airports and 3 186 aircraft,with projections indicating an increase to 500 airports and 4.5 million flight hours by 2025.This rapid growth necessitates enhanced meteorological services tailored to GA operations.
    Unlike commercial aviation,GA represents unique meteorological challenges due to diverse aircraft types,variable flight altitudes,and a heavy reliance on low-altitude weather conditions.These factors require highly localized,precise meteorological forecasts.However,China's current GA meteorological infrastructure is limited by insufficient observational equipment,incomplete data coverage,and inadequate forecasting capabilities——particularly for low-altitude operations.
    Internationally,significant advancements have been made in GA meteorological services.Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems have improved through higher-resolution models and advanced data assimilation techniques.Observational technologies,such as Doppler radar and lidar,provide high-resolution data,enhancing forecast accuracy.Studies have demonstrated that advanced NWP systems and data assimilation techniques can significantly improve forecasts of small-scale weather phenomena,such as thunderstorms (Shun et al.,2009;Joe et al.,2022).Additionally,international efforts have focused on integrating multiple observational datasets and forecast models to provide comprehensive meteorological support for GA operations.
    In contrast,China's GA meteorological services remain underdeveloped.The current system lacks comprehensive observational networks,advanced forecasting capabilities,and efficient data-sharing platforms.Most GA airports have limited meteorological infrastructure,and available meteorological data are often insufficient for low-altitude operations.To address these challenges,it is essential to develop high-resolution meteorological products,enhance observational capabilities,and establish a unified meteorological information-sharing platform for GA.
    This paper reviews the current state and future trends of GA meteorological services,both domestically and internationally.It identifies key meteorological hazards affecting GA safety,including low-altitude wind shear,turbulence,typhoons,low visibility,thunderstorms,icing,and precipitation.Furthermore,it discusses the development of a GA meteorological warning and forecasting system,emphasizing real-time data integration,multi-source data fusion,and user-friendly meteorological products.
    The proposed GA meteorological service system aims to provide real-time meteorological data,integrate observational and forecasting capabilities,and offer personalized meteorological services for GA operations.This system will leverage modern technologies,including artificial intelligence,big data,and mobile applications,to enhance meteorological support.Future efforts will focus on improving the spatial and temporal resolution of meteorological products,developing region-specific meteorological services,and enhancing data-sharing mechanisms through integrated platforms.
    In conclusion,developing advanced GA meteorological services is essential for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of GA in China.By learning from international experiences and adopting advanced technologies,China can significantly improve its GA meteorological capabilities,thereby enhancing industry development and mitigating meteorological risks associated with GA operations.

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吴昊,徐琪,曹阳,慕熙昱,王体健,严殊祺,杨华栋,花家嘉,2025.通用航空气象灾害监测与预报预警技术新进展[J].大气科学学报,48(2):340-351.
WU Hao, XU Qi, CAO Yang, MU Xiyu, WANG Tijian, YAN Shuqi, YANG Huadong, HUA Jiajia,2025. Forecasting and early warning technology development for general aviation meteorological hazards[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,48(2):340-351. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20240813001

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  • 收稿日期:2024-08-13
  • 最后修改日期:2024-10-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-25
  • 出版日期: 2025-03-28

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