基于动态时间规整的气温日值数据二次插补
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作者单位:

1.山东省气象数据中心;2.福建省气象信息中心

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基金项目:

山东气象局重点科研项目(2021SDQXZ02);山东省气象局青年科研(2021SDQN03)


A Twice Interpolation Method for Daily Temperature Based on DTW
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Shandong Meteorological Data Centre;2.Fujian Meteorological Information Centre

Fund Project:

Shandong Meteorological Bureau Key Scientific Research(2021sdqxz02); Shandong Meteorological Bureau Youth Scientific Research(2021SDQN03)

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    摘要:

    气温作为研究气候演变最基础的物理量,其日值序列的完整性和准确性对于气候分析与评估工作有着重要的意义。近些年随着大量无人值守地面加密自动气象站的布设,不断出现随机站点和随机长度这种双随机特点的气象资料序列缺失,给气候分析和业务应用造成了不小的障碍。本文针对现有气象数据插补方案的不足,提出了一种全新的基于动态时间规整(Dynamic Time Warping, DTW)的气温日值数据二次插补方法。方法采用了一种实时的插补策略,主要技术内容包括:(1)利用一元线性回归方程将原始气温观测时间序列分解出拟合直线和残差曲线,并将二者重构组成新的气温序列;(2)给出了气温插补区的定义和插补条件;(3)提出了利用动态时间规整方法计算站点间距离的新模式。利用山东省2021年的气温实况数据对方法进行了双随机检验,检验结果表明:方法可以满足日平均气温、日最高气温和日最低气温数据的插补需求;在插补流程中采用DTW距离测度和二次插补的组合方法,插补效果优于目前常见的基于站点地理临近关系的组合方法;方法对于地形存在一定的敏感性,在平原或丘陵地区的插补效果优于山地地区。

    Abstract:

    As the most basic physical quantity for studying on climate evolution, the integrity and accuracy of daily temperature series are of great significance for climate analysis and assessment. In recent years, with the deployment of a large number of unmanned ground intensified automatic weather stations, missing data with double random characteristics such as random distribution of stations and random lengths of series, which poses significant obstacles to climate analysis and operational applications. In view of the shortcomings of the existing methods for meteorological data interpolation, a new twice interpolation method of daily temperature data based on dynamic time warping (DTW) is proposed in this paper. The method adopts a real-time interpolation strategy, which mainly includes: (1) The method decomposes the temperature observation time series into a fitted straight line and a residual curved line by using univariate linear regression equation, and recomposes new temperature series by combining the two lines; (2) The method provides the definition and interpolation conditions of temperature interpolation areas; (3)The method proposes a new model for calculating the distance between stations by DTW . The collecting temperature data from Shandong Province in 2021 is used to test the method, and the test results show that the method can meet the interpolation needs of daily temperature data with double random characteristics, and the combination method of DTW distance and twice interpolation in the interpolation process can achieve a better effect than any of the other combination based on site geographical proximity relationships; the method is sensitive to terrain, and the interpolation effect in plain or hilly area is better than that in mountainous area.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-11-30
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-18
  • 录用日期:2023-06-09
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-11-17
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