CWRF 降尺度提高BCC_CSM1.1m对中国夏季降水跨季度动力预测能力
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1.南京信息工程大学;2.马里兰大学;3.国家气候中心

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CWRF downscaling improves BCC_CSM seasonal prediction of summer precipitation in China
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1.Nanjing University of Information Science &2.Technology;3.China;4.University of Maryland, College Park, MD USA;5.National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration

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    摘要:

    利用CWRF (Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model)对国家气候中心BCC_CSM1.1m业务预测模式短期气候预测结果进行中国区域降尺度,并使用1991-2010年3-8月逐日气温、降水观测数据评估预测能力。结果表明: CWRF预测地面两米气温、降水气候平均态的空间分布比BCC_CSM1.1m更接近观测,分布误差更小;在保持总体技巧不低于BCC_CSM1.1m的同时, CWRF对我国华东和华中地区的降水年际变化预测准确率更高;对不同强度的降水预测CWRF表现均优于BCC_CSM1.1m模式,尤其在极端降水预测准确率上更优。总之,得益于更高的空间分辨率和优化的低空物理过程模拟,CWRF降尺度可以提高中国夏季跨季度降水预测能力。

    Abstract:

    The regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) was used to downscale the National Climate Center operational short-term climate prediction based on the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1m). The prediction skill was assessed for daily precipitation and surface air (2-m) temperature in March-August during 1991-2010. As compared with BCC_CSM, CWRF predicts more realistic seasonal mean precipitation and temperature spatial distributions and resolves more detailed features over the mountainous regions with large terrain variations. It also predicts more accurately precipitation interannual variations in East and Central China. Overall, CWRF outperforms BCC_CSM in predicting precipitation of different intensities, especially extreme events. Benefited from higher spatial resolution and advanced physical process simulation at lower levels, CWRF downscaling can improve seasonal prediction of summer precipitation in China.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2021-01-16
  • 最后修改日期:2021-04-06
  • 录用日期:2021-04-20
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