北极涛动的年代际变化及其气候影响
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中国科学院大气物理研究所 季风系统研究中心

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Interdecadal variation of the Arctic Oscillation and its influences on climate
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Center for Monsoon System Research,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, AO)是北半球热带外地区大气环流变率的主导模态,对北半球以及区域尺度气温变化具有重要影响。由于AO可以在没有外强迫条件下通过波流相互作用形成,因此它也被认为是全球气候系统内部变率的重要组成部分。研究年代际尺度上AO的变化及其气候影响可以加深对当前北半球气候变化规律的物理理解,也可以为预估未来年代际时间尺度上气候的变化及其不确定性提供科学依据。本文从AO影响东亚冬季风年代际变化的物理机制、AO对北半球冬季气温长期趋势的贡献、AO年代际影响的不确定性这三个方面出发,对近年来关于年代际时间尺度上冬季AO的时空变化及其对北半球气候的影响进行了非常简要的回顾和总结,并对一些值得未来继续深入研究的问题进行了初步展望。

    Abstract:

    The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the dominant mode of the atmospheric circulation in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which exerts widespread influences on the Northern Hemispheric and regional temperature changes. AO can be generated via wave-mean flow interactions without the presence of the atmospheric external forcing. Hence, it is an essential component of the internal climate variability of the climate system. Investigating the interdecadal variation of the AO and its climate impacts helps to deepen the physical understanding of the observed climate change and variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, it also provides a scientific basis for the near-term projection of climate change and its uncertainty. This paper briefly reviews the studies on the temporal and spatial variations of the wintertime AO on the interdecadal time scales and its impact on the Northern Hemisphere climate. Three aspects are reviewed, including the physical mechanism of the influences of the AO on the interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon, the contribution of the AO to the long-term trend of the wintertime air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere, and the uncertainty of the AO’s influence. The possible issues that deserve future research are also discussed.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-10-30
  • 最后修改日期:2020-10-30
  • 录用日期:2020-11-16
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