MPI-ESM-LR模式中RCP8.5情景下春季北极海冰突变对东亚夏季降水的影响
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南京信息工程大学大气科学学院

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国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)


The influence of spring Arctic sea ice abrupt change on East Asia summer precipitation under RCP8.5 scenario of MPI-ESM-LR model.
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College of Atmospheric Sciences,University of Information Science Technology

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    摘要:

    利用MPI-ESM-LR模式RCP8.5情景下海冰浓度、降水、海表面温度、500hPa位势高度和850hPa风场等月平均数据,对比分析了一次北极海冰突变前后春季海冰与东亚夏季降水关系的差异,并探究其可能成因。结果表明1) 北极海冰突变导致北极海冰浓度(SIC)和ENSO对东亚夏季降水的影响均发生变化。突变前SIC和ENSO共同影响降水年际变化;突变后ENSO主导降水EOF的第一模态,SIC主导降水EOF的第二模态;2) 北极海冰突变前,ENSO和SIC通过500hPa经向波列,影响整个东亚地区的850hPa风场,最终导致三极子型降水模态。而突变后,ENSO通过500hPa经向波列,影响华南地区的850hPa风场,导致降水的偶极子空间模态,从而主导降水EOF的第一模态;同时SIC通过东亚地区500hPa纬向波列,影响北方850hPa风场,最终主导降水EOF的第二模态。3)北极海冰突变后,ENSO和SIC对东亚夏季降水的影响存在区域差异。北极海冰突变前,ENSO和SIC共同影响南北方降水;北极海冰突变后,SIC主要影响北方降水,ENSO主要影响南方降水。

    Abstract:

    Using the monthly data of sea ice concentration, precipitation, sea surface temperature, 500hPa geopotential height and 850hPa wind field under RCP8.5 scenario of MPI-ESM-LR model, a comparative analysis of the difference of relationship betweeen spring Arctic sea ice and East Asian summer precipitation before and after Arctic sea ice abrupt change and explore its possible causes. The results show that 1) The abrupt change of Arctic sea ice has caused changes in the Arctic Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) and ENSO"s influence on East Asian summer precipitation. Before the abrupt change, SIC and ENSO jointly affect the interannual variation of precipitation; after the the abrupt change, ENSO dominates the EOF’s first mode of precipitation , and SIC dominates the EOF’s second mode of precipitation; 2) Before the abrupt change of Arctic sea ice, ENSO and SIC affected the 850hPa wind field in the whole east Asia through the 500hPa meridional wave train,and eventually leading to a tripole-type precipitation mode. After the sudden change, ENSO affects the 850hPa wind field in South China through the 500hPa meridional wave train, leading to the dipole spatial mode of precipitation, which dominates the EOF’s first mode of precipitation; Meanwhile, SIC influences the wind field of 850hPa in the north through the 500hPa zonal wave train in east Asia, and finally dominates the EOF’s second mode of precipitation. 3) After the abrupt change of Arctic sea ice, the effects of ENSO and SIC on summer precipitation in East Asia have regional differences. Before the abrupt change of Arctic sea ice, ENSO and SIC jointly affected precipitation in the North and South China; after the abrupt change of Arctic sea ice, SIC mainly affected precipitation in the North China, and ENSO mainly affected precipitation in the South China.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-10-27
  • 最后修改日期:2020-12-08
  • 录用日期:2021-03-25
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