Abstract:Evapotranspiration (ET) is the bridge among hydrologic and energy cycles,linking soil,vegetation and atmospheric processes.In this paper,based on the output of 12 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project,phase 6) models,the actual ET change during 2020-2099 and the influencing factors in the Yangtze River basin are studied under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios.The results show that the land ET has significantly increased under the three scenarios compared with the baseline period (1995-2015),particularly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin.Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the ET increases rapidly until the 2060s,and then levels off,after which a continuous increase is indicated under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The influencing factors of precipitation (Pr),air temperature (T) and leaf area index (LAI) are studied,and T appears to be the most important factor influencing Yangtze ET under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios;however,the LAI becomes dominant across the Yangtze River Basin under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.Under the three scenarios,the LAI increases significantly with increased radiative forcing,leading to significantly increased vegetation impact on land ET (SSP5-8.5 > SSP2-4.5 > SSP1-2.6);however,the sensitivity of ET to LAI change appears to decrease with increased radiative forcing (SSP1-2.6 > SSP2-4.5 > SSP5-8.5).