大气初始场对短期气候数值预测的影响
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(41105057;41275111;41375115);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206002);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB951901)


Influence of initial atmospheric conditions on short-term climate numerical prediction
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    摘要:

    利用中国科学院大气物理研究所发展的九层大气环流模式(简称IAP 9L2°×2.5°-AGCM)分析了大气初始场对短期气候数值预测的影响,分别从实际观测海温、海冰的外强迫和气候态海温、海冰的外强迫出发,进行两组集合回报试验,每组包含3个试验,分别将实时NCEP-Ⅱ资料和对NCEP-Ⅱ资料经5 d平滑、11 d平滑后的资料作为大气初始场,进行17 a(1988—2004年)集合回报试验,采用相关分析方法对试验结果进行对比分析.结果表明,比较相关系数定量检验出大气初始场对热带地区可预报性影响较小,而对中、高纬度地区影响很大.通过对6个试验中对应气象要素在对流层各层距平时间相关系数以及17 a空间异常相关系数均值比较分析发现对东亚(中国)地区夏季气候而言,NCEP-Ⅱ资料经5 d平滑后生成的大气初始场对应回报试验结果相对最好.

    Abstract:

    In order to analyze the influence of initial atmospheric conditions on short-term climate numerical prediction,two different sets of ensemble hindcasting experiments were performed with IAP9L2x2.5-AGCM(a grid-point Atmospheric General Circulation Model which was developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the Chinese Academy of Sciences) forced by observed and climatic surface sea temperature(SST),sea ice respectively for seventeen years(1988—2004).In each set of the experiment,there were three tests under three different initial atmospheric conditions,namely,NCEP-Ⅱdata,smoothed 5-day NCEP-Ⅱdata and smoothed 11-day NCEP-Ⅱdata.The method of correlation analysis was used here.The results showed that the influence of initial atmospheric conditions on short-term climate prediction in the extratropical areas is greater than that in the tropical areas.As to summer in East Asia(China),the initial atmospheric conditions of smoothed 5-day NCEP-Ⅱ data performed better than smoothed 11-day NCEP-Ⅱdata and NCEP-Ⅱdata(adopted by real-time prediction at present) by comparing the temporal anomaly correlation and the average of spatial anomaly correlation of meteorological elements during the 17 years.In contrast to the initial atmospheric conditions adopted at present,the work in this paper unveiled some useful information that is suitable for short term prediction for IAP 9L2°×2.5°-AGCM,which is valuable.

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官元红,周广庆,陆其峰,陆维松,2014.大气初始场对短期气候数值预测的影响[J].大气科学学报,37(5):631-641. GUAN Yuan-hong, ZHOU Guang-qing, LU Qi-feng, LU Wei-song,2014. Influence of initial atmospheric conditions on short-term climate numerical prediction[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,37(5):631-641. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20120411001

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  • 收稿日期:2012-04-11
  • 最后修改日期:2012-09-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-10-31
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