华北地区降水的准周期信号及其阶段性变化特征
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国家科技部社会公益类资助项目(2002DIB20067)


Quasi-Periodic Signals and Its Features of Phased Changes for the Precipitation over North China
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    摘要:

    应用奇异谱(SSA)方法分析了华北地区降水的准周期信号及其阶段性变化特征,结果表明,华北地区月降水序列的年际振荡信号较强,占总方差的44.7%,显著振荡周期分别有17个月(准1~2 a)、30个月(准2~3 a)、60个月(准5 a)和11个月(准1 a),不同分区降水的准周期振荡信号各有差异。各种准周期振荡随时间的长期演变亦很明显且各不相同。奇异交叉谱(SCSA)诊断表明,华北地区降水的年际振荡与N ino区海温的准周期信号存在着显著的耦合关系,且这种耦合关系随时间是变化的,表现出耦合振荡强度的阶段性变化和耦合位相随时间的改变。各分区降水与不同N ino区海温的显著耦合周期信号及其随时间的长期演变各具特色,体现了华北地区降水对N ino区海温异常响应的复杂性。

    Abstract:

    The quasi-periodic signals and its interdecadal changes of the monthly rainfall anomaly series are diagnosed over North China by means of singular spectrum analysis(SSA).The results show that the inter-annual oscillations of the rainfall series are strong accounting for about 44.7% of the total variance,and significant oscillation periods are 17 months(quasi-1~2 years),30 months(quasi-2~3 years),60 months(around 5 years) and 11 months(quasi-1 year).The quasi-periodic signals display different features in different sub-division,and their long-term changes are also distinct and different from each other.The singular cross spectrum analysis(SCSA) suggests that there exist evident coupling relations between the inter-annual oscillations of the precipitation series over North China and the quasi-periodic signals of the sea surface temperature(SST) in Nino regions,and the relations vary with time,showing the phased change feature of the coupled oscillatory intensity and the time-varying feature of coupling phase.The dominant couple periodic signals between various sub-divisions rainfall and the SST over different Nino regions,display different features in defferent sub-divisions reflecting the complicacy of responses of the precipitation over North China to the SST anomaly over Nino regions.

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建军,余锦华,荣艳淑,2005.华北地区降水的准周期信号及其阶段性变化特征[J].大气科学学报,28(6):770-777. JIAN Jun, YU Jin-hua, RONG Yan-shu,2005. Quasi-Periodic Signals and Its Features of Phased Changes for the Precipitation over North China[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,28(6):770-777.

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  • 收稿日期:2004-03-08
  • 最后修改日期:2004-10-14
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