西北东部夏季极端干旱事件机理分析
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(41575070;41075070);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306028);江苏高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)


Analysis of the causes of extreme summer drought over the eastern part of northwestern China
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    摘要:

    利用国家气候中心提供的1951-2012年逐日降水、温度、综合气象干旱指数、逐月NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,采用REOF分析、动力诊断、相关分析以及合成分析等方法,从大气环流异常特征、高空急流与季风异常等方面揭示西北东部夏季极端干旱事件的可能机理。研究发现西北东部夏季发生极端干旱时,副热带急流轴“倾斜”,且急流与东亚夏季风强度均处于相对偏弱阶段。极端干旱的成因研究表明:急流轴“倾斜”及其强度减弱导致西北东部地区高层大范围的异常辐合;该地区为水汽源区,对流层整层水汽收支显著亏损;此外,该地区低层盛行来自内陆干旱区的异常西南风,东亚夏季风强度偏弱,高低层配置及大尺度环流形势不利于降水产生。

    Abstract:

    This paper investigates the variability of abnormally wet and dry conditions during the past 60 years in the eastern part of northwestern China (ENWC).Daily precipitation,temperature and compound index (CI) of meteorological drought data provided by the China National Climate Center are used,along with monthly reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR,for the period 1951-2012.The methods of rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF),correlation analysis,composite analysis and dynamical diagnosis are employed.Additionally,the possible underlying physical mechanism of extreme summer drought events is revealed through analys is of atmospheric circulation anomalies,such as the East Asian summer monsoon,as well as vapor transportation and vertical motion.In particular,the relationship between the upper-level subtropical jet and the upper-level anomalous divergence field is explored.The results can be summarized as follows:The trend of change in CI index is similar to that of precipitation;there are obvious interannual and interdecadal variations of CI index and precipitation in summer over ENWC.Meanwhile,a positive anomaly of summer temperature has continuously maintained over recent decades.More seriously,an obvious decrease in precipitation after the mid-1990s is apparent;and consequently,a warmer and dryer trend began and continues today over ENWC.The extreme drought centers in summer are mainly located in the Hetao Plain and the southeast of ENWC,representing a southwest-northeast trend.Moreover,this spatial distribution tendency and associated features are almost the same as those of wet events over ENWC,and are very similar to those of the northern marginal zone of the East Asian summer monsoon in the same period.Evidence shows that the CI over ENWC is significantly and positively correlated with the 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly in the Ural Mountains,and significantly and negatively correlated with that over Lake Baikal and the north Okhotsk Sea.It is also found that the upper-level subtropical jet's axis tilts (it is flat during extreme wet events),and,as a result,causes large-scale anomalous convergence during extreme summer drought events.At the same time,due to the weak intensity of the upper-level subtropical jet,abnormal easterly flows exist in the upper levels over ENWC,indirectly bringing about a weak circulation on the right of the subtropical jet exit area,which is not conducive to the monsoon moving northward.Moreover,the low-level anomalous southwest winds from Northwest China and the plateau regions indicate the East Asian summer monsoon is weak.Besides,the variation in the location of the ridge line and westward extent of the subtropical high over the western Pacific Ocean is weak,and one of the important reasons for extreme summer drought may result from the divergence of water vapor and descending motion in summer over ENWC.Previous studies have also confirmed that the changes in dry and wet conditions over ENWC are opposite to those over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.In summary,the main cause of extreme drought over ENWC in summer is the responses to the tilt of the upper-level subtropical jet's axis and its weak intensity.Specifically,a wide range of convergence in circulation may appear,which in turn causes abnormal divergence in circulation in the low levels,and thus a deficit in the water vapor budget throughout the whole troposphere.In addition,the East Asian summer monsoon is weak.Therefore,the combination of the above higher and lower level systems and the abnormal atmospheric circulation is unfavorable for precipitation,leading to extreme drought.

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朱伟军,王燕娜,周兵,潘佳,2016.西北东部夏季极端干旱事件机理分析[J].大气科学学报,39(4):468-479. ZHU Weijun, WANG Yanna, ZHOU Bing, PAN Jia,2016. Analysis of the causes of extreme summer drought over the eastern part of northwestern China[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,39(4):468-479. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20140106001

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  • 收稿日期:2014-01-06
  • 最后修改日期:2014-02-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-08-01
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