福建春雨多时空尺度变化特征
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国家科技部公益研究专项资金项目(2001DIB20116);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40775033);公益性行业科研专项经费项目(GYHY20086009);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2004CB418301;2009CB421503)


Multiple Spatiotemporal Scale Characteristics of Fujian Spring Precipitation
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    摘要:

    利用主成分分析和相关分析表明,近40 a来福建春雨量场的主要信息集中在前2个主分量上,可解释方差的83.8%,同时第1、第2主成分与福州、厦门春雨的相关显著性水平都超过0.01,因此,可用近百年福州、厦门3-4月降水量构造新序列代表福建春雨的前2个主分量,使分析资料延长至百年。采用连续小波分析和正交小波分析方法以及功率谱方法,研究福建春雨空间分布型的多时间尺度特征,研究结果表明:第1主分量表示的全省一致性旱涝具有显著的准4 a和24~26a的周期振荡;第2主分量表示的春雨分布南北差异主要表现为准两年和准11 a的周期振荡;春旱年南部的降水少于北部;从年代际角度看,20世纪50-60年代显著偏少,80年代显著偏多。福建目前处于春雨正常-偏少期,且南部的春旱比北部严重。

    Abstract:

    By the principal component analysis(PCA) and correlation analysis, it is found that the main information of Fujian spring precipitation in the last 40 years concentrates on the first two principal components, which account for 83.8% of the total variance. Meanwhile, the correlation coefficients between the first two principal components and the reconstructed spring precipitation of Fuzhou and Xiamen are both significant at a more than the 0.01 confidence level. Therefore, two new precipitation sequences can be constructed by using the sum/difference of Fuzhou and Xiamen rainfall in March and April in recent 100 years to represent the first/second components of Fujian spring precipitation, respectively, and the length of data can be extend to 100 years. Then the multi-time scale features of the reconstructed spring precipitation series are explored by the continuous and orthogonal wavelet analyses and the power spectrum. Results indicate that the first principal component corresponding to the sum serial denotes the drought/flood trend consistent over the whole province with marked quasi-4-year and 24-26-year periods;the second principal component corresponding to the difference serial describes the difference of spring precipitation between southern and morthern Fujian with quasi-2-year and quasi-11-year periods;and in spring drought years, precipitaton over the southern is less than that over the northern. The amount of spring rainfall was remarkably less than the normal in the 1950s-1960s but more in the 1980s. At present it is in the period of normal-less rainfall with less precipitation in the southern than in the northern.

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张容焱,邓自旺,沈新勇,鲍瑞娟,2009.福建春雨多时空尺度变化特征[J].大气科学学报,32(1):121-127. ZHANG Rong-yan, DENG Zi-wang, SHEN Xin-yong, BAO Rui-juan,2009. Multiple Spatiotemporal Scale Characteristics of Fujian Spring Precipitation[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,32(1):121-127.

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  • 收稿日期:2007-11-14
  • 最后修改日期:2008-04-11
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-04-25
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