冰雹云提前识别及预警的研究
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“九五”国家科技攻关项目(96-020-01-07);陕西省科技攻关项目(97K14-G2)


Investigation on Early Identification and Warning of Hail Clouds
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    摘要:

    利用雷达强回波45 dBZ高度和降雹日08时月平均零度层高度,对1991-2003年宝鸡雷达站观测的165d 231块对流云数值拟合,得出了识别冰雹云的指标:处于发展中的对流云,雷达强回波45 dBZ高度大于或等于多年降雹日08时零度层月平均值的2.9km,将有冰雹酝酿形成。对降雹造成灾害的雷达回波分析表明:雷达强回波的45dBZ平均底部越高、提前识别的时间越长,顶部越高距离降雹时间越短,冰雹的形成是雷达强回波从云体的中部开始向上下扩展而成。该识别冰雹云方法对单体降雹平均提前识别12min,而对超级单体平均提前识别18min,对多单体、飑线中超级单体的降雹具有提前预警的作用,平均提前预警时间22min。

    Abstract:

    The index for identifing the hail clouds was obtained based on the data fitting of heights of 45dBZ radar echo and the monthly averaged heights of zero-temperature level for 231 convective clouds in 165 days from 1991 to 2003 at Baoji radar observation.The index is defined that if the height of 45dBZ echo of a developing convective cloud at 0800BST ≥ 2.9km of monthly averaged zero-temperature level height,then the hail will occur.The analysis of radar echoes of hail-bearing clouds show that the higher the base of 45dBZ radar echo,the earlier the hail clouds can be identified,and the higher the top of 45dBZ radar echo,the sooner the hail occurs.The formation of hails generally started in the middle part of hail cloud,supper cell,and multi-cell,and then extended upwards and downwards.With the proposed index,the averaged early time indentification is 12 minutes for hail clouds,and 18 minutes for supercell storms,and 22 minutes for multi-cell storms and supercell storms of squall lines.Those times will be helpful for preparation of hail suppression operation.

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李金辉,樊鹏,2007.冰雹云提前识别及预警的研究[J].大气科学学报,30(1):114-119. LI Jing-hui, FAN Peng,2007. Investigation on Early Identification and Warning of Hail Clouds[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,30(1):114-119.

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  • 收稿日期:2005-04-13
  • 最后修改日期:2005-12-25
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