我国东部4—9月大尺度南北旱涝的特征及变化
投稿时间:2004-09-02  修订日期:2004-12-13  点此下载全文
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作者单位
张立波 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China
Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510080, China
 
封国林 Physical Science and Technology College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, China 
郭利娜 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China
 
施能 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China
Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, CMA, Guangzhou 510080, China
 
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(40275031);热带气象基金资助项目(90411008)
中文摘要:研究了我国东部4—9月逐月、逐季降水的跷跷板结构和气候特征,结果表明:不同时段跷跷板结构的位置和强度不同。当时间尺度加大时,南北旱涝特征更明显。定义并计算了1951—2003年我国的南北旱涝指数。对夏季和8月典型南北旱涝年进行差异的显著性t检验,表明南北旱涝年的划分是合理的。研究了1951—2003年我国南北旱涝特征的长期趋势和年代际变化;研究了南北旱涝指数与冷暖事件年的关系。结果表明,冷暖事件年对6月、6—7月以及夏季大尺度南北旱涝有影响,暖事件年有利于发生北旱南涝;而冷事件年则相反。结果还表明,冷暖事件仅是我国南北旱涝分布的一个影响因素。
中文关键词:南北旱涝  气候特征  华南汛期  长期趋势  年代际变化
 
Features and Variations of the Large Scale Precipitation Seesaw during April to September in East China
Abstract:The spatial seesaw structures and climate features of April to September precipitation in east China are studied month by month and season by season in this paper,and the results show that the position and intensity of the seesaw were different in different periods.The seesaw feature of precipitation between south and north areas were more obviously when the time scale became large.The index of southern-drought(flood)-northern-flood(drought) is defined as the difference of the normalized anomaly of rainfall between south and north areas,and the index from 1951 to 2003 calculated.The difference t test of typical southern-drought(flood)-northern-flood(drought) years of summer and August precipitation confirms that the drought/flood years we have identified are reasonable.The secular trend and interdecadal variations of the seesaw features of precipitation during 1951—2003,and its relation with the cold/warm events are also studied.The results show that cold/warm events had effect on the large scale precipitation seesaw in June,June to July and summer.There were more droughts in north area and floods in south area when warm events happened,and vice versa.Study also points out that the cold/warm event is only one of factors that determine the distribution of precipitation over East China.
keywords:precipitation seesaw between south and north areas  climate feature  rainy season in south China  secular trend  interdecadal variation
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