Abstract:By using the IAP 9-level grid-point Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP9L-AGCM) and IAP-ENSO forecasting system,developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences,ensemble predictions of summer climate anomalies over China in 2002 are carried out in this study.Moreover,its performance is evaluated and compared with the observation.It is shown that the predicted pattern of climate anomalies generally agrees well with the observed one over most regions of China,such as positive precipitation anomalies over South and West China,as well as drought over most part of areas between the Yellow River and the Yangtze River valley.In addition,the weakened East Asian summer monsoon at 850hPa,anomalous divergence center over the Qingzang Plateau,and cyclonic circulation anomaly over North Pacific are all well captured.Also,it is revealed that the predicted pattern of summer (JJA mean) rainfall anomalies is more reliable than monthly one,and the prediction skill is gradually decreased through June to August.