兰州气温变化长期倾向和振荡的检测及预报试验
投稿时间:1998-01-04  修订日期:1998-05-11  点此下载全文
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作者单位
吴洪宝 南京气象学院气象学系, 南京 210044 
段安民 拉萨市气象局, 拉萨 850000 
基金项目:国家“九五”重中之重项目
中文摘要:用奇异谱分析检测兰州最近64年气温的长期倾向和周期振荡得到其总倾向是增暖的,年代际振荡振幅较大。1946~1967年降温约1℃,1968年至90年代前期升温约1.3℃。年际和月际振荡主要有7.5年、3.3年、7.69月和3.38月。1976年起季节循环有明显变化,冬季变暖夏季变凉,月平均气温的年较差比前43年减小1.7℃。用SSA-MEM可以做4个月的月平均气温距平预报。
中文关键词:气温变化  倾向  振荡  奇异谱分析
 
LONG-TERM TREND AND OSCILLATION DETECTION IN LANZHOU TEMPERATURE AND EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS
Abstract:The long-term trend and oscillations of Lanzhou temperature over recent 64 years are detected by using the singular spectrum analysis. Results show that there is a general warming all over the period. The amplitude of interdecadal oscillations is large, with a cooling of 1℃ from 1946 to 1967 and a warming of about 1.3℃ from 1968 to the earlier mineties. There are also interannual and intermonthly oscillation periods of 7.5- year, 3.3-year, 7.69-month, 3.38-month. Since 1976 strong changes in seasonal cycle have taken place, with winters becoming warmer and summers colder. The annual range of monthly mean temperature in the latest 21 years was 1.7℃ less than in the earlier 43 years. The monthly mean temperature anomaly for 4 months extension may be predicted by using SSAMEM.
keywords:air temperature  temperature trend  temperature oscillation  singular spectrum analysis
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