气象时间序列的自相关性对抽样相关系数的影响
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EFFECT OF AUTOCORRELATION ON CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS OF SAMPLES OF METEOROLOGICAL TIME SERIES
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    摘要:

    本文论证了气象序列存在自相关情况下,样本相关系数抽样分布发生变形。在各种总体相关条件下,其抽样方差都叠加着自相关和后延互相关的影响。理论和实例表明,当序列有自相关时,按时间顺序截取一段记录作为样本计算相关,并不符合简单随机抽样的假定。因此,现行的相关计算由于自相关性(尤其是强自相关性)的影响,其抽样方差在不同程度上比原有的抽样分布加大。文中提出滑动样本相关系数呈正弦波动时,其抽样分布废为U型概率分布,从而再次证明自相关对于计算相关系数的影响。为了消除自相关对抽样的影响,文中还提出改进了的抽样方案。

    Abstract:

    It is demonstrated that sampling distribution of correlation coefficientdeforms when there is autocorrelation in time series. In correlations ofsamples to the population, effects of autocorrelation and the time-lag cross-correlation are found to be superimposed on the sampling variances. Asshown both in theory and practice, correlations calculated for a series ofan arbitrary time period do not conform with those of random samples.Thus the correlation coefficients calculated for series with autocorrelationin current practices would contain higher variances than for the real ran-dom samples. It is also found that when the correlation coefficients ofsliding samples display a sine wave pattern, a U-shape probability distri-bution results, which again demonstrates the effect of autocorrelation. Animproved sampling procedure is suggested to obviate the effect of autocor-relation.

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丁裕国,1986.气象时间序列的自相关性对抽样相关系数的影响[J].大气科学学报,9(3):239-248. Ding Yuguo,1986. EFFECT OF AUTOCORRELATION ON CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS OF SAMPLES OF METEOROLOGICAL TIME SERIES[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,9(3):239-248.

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  • 收稿日期:1985-06-06
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