北半球500毫巴月平均超长波的若干特征及其在我国长江下游六、七月份旱涝预报中的应用
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Some Characteristics of Monthly Mean Ultra-Long Waves at 500mb Level in the Northern Hemisphere and Their Application to Extended Outlook of Wetness and Dryness during June and July in China’s Lower Changjiang River
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    摘要:

    为了客观地描述500毫巴月平均环流的主要特征,并探讨中高纬度500毫巴环流与后期长江下游降水的关系。本文首先对中高纬度500毫巴月平均高度场按切比雪夫—傅里叶混合多项式进行展开,然后对月平均图上的超长波活动进行分析,并应用所得的展开系数进行模糊聚类。分析结果表明:(1) 500毫巴月平均高度场上的超长波有着明显的季节变化特征,旱涝年的波谱特征有显著差异;(2) 春冬中高纬度超长波,特别是三月份一波槽脊的位置和西风强度与夏季长江下游的降水有较好的关系,与夏季东亚环流形势也是相关的。

    Abstract:

    For the purpose of describing objectively the main characteristics of monthly mean circulation at 500rob level and thus establishing the correlation between the circulation at the same level of the middle and lower latitudes and the precipitation in the later part of the period over the basin of the lower Ghangjiang River, monthly mean 500rob height fields are expanded by use of mixed Chebyshev-Fourier polynomials, then the behavior of ultra-long waves is examined and finally these waves are classified in Fuzzy according to their expansion coefficients. The results thus obtained are:1) The ultra-long waves at 500rob level show remarkable seasonal variations, whose spectra in dry years are distinctly different from those in wet years; 2)Ultra-long waves at middle and lower latitudes during winter and spring, particularly the positions of ridge-trough ofwavenumber 1 and the intensity of the west wind in March, are well correlated with the precipitation over the basin of the lower Changjiang River in summer and with the summer circulation over East Asia as well.

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方之芳,1982.北半球500毫巴月平均超长波的若干特征及其在我国长江下游六、七月份旱涝预报中的应用[J].大气科学学报,5(1):46-62. Fang Zhifang,1982. Some Characteristics of Monthly Mean Ultra-Long Waves at 500mb Level in the Northern Hemisphere and Their Application to Extended Outlook of Wetness and Dryness during June and July in China’s Lower Changjiang River[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,5(1):46-62.

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