60th Anniversary of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology

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  • 1  The Belt and Road region climate change: facts,impacts and possible risks
    WANG Huijun TANG Guoli CHEN Hanshan WU Shaohong XIAO Cunde JIANG Dabang ZHOU Botao SUN Jianqi DUAN Mingkeng XU Ying LUO Yong YANG Xiaoguang WANG Fan KANG Shichang WANG Yi GAO Qingzhu ZUO Juncheng ZHANG Yuanming WEI Wei ZHENG Jingyun WANG Guoqing GAO Xuejie LI Ning LIU Chuanyu ZENG Xiaodong BAO Yansong ZHANG Chi ZENG Gang SUN Bo HUANG Yanyan SHI Ning YIN Zhicong ZHANG Jie YU Miao CHEN Huopo ZHU Yali MA Jiehua YAN Qing GUO Donglin ZHANG Ying GAO Ya WU Tonghua LIU Hui TAN Xianchun YIN Yunhe YU Rencheng HUANG Haijun XU Yan LIU Na ZHAN YUNjian REN Yuyu
    2020, 43(1):1-9. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191110003
    [Abstract](2738) [HTML](0) [PDF 4.10 M](5330)
    The economic and political development of countries in the Belt and Road region is extremely uneven.Along with the progression of global warming,the natural environment,ecological environment,climate resources and water resources throughout the region will face new pressure brought by such significant changes.Moreover,drought,flood and other climate disasters are major threats to the sustainable development and major infrastructure construction in the Belt and Road region.At present,the Belt and Road Initiative has entered the substantive construction stage.Climate change and disaster risks occurring along the routes are related to the smooth implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative and investment security of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).In this context,the Department of Geosciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences implemented the "Belt and Road region climate change issues" consultation project from June 2016 to June 2018.As part of the project systematic research was conducted on the facts of climate change throughout the region,as well as the prediction of future change,the possible impacts of climate change,and the potential risks brought on by climate change.Throughout this period,a number of analyses and studies have been carried out.After two years of implementation,the project team has completed four progress reports,including one general report and three sub-reports.The present paper briefly summarizes and introduces these achievements.
    2  The development and consideration of typhoon forecast operation of National Meteorological Center
    LI Zechun ZHANG Ling QIAN Qifeng MA Suhong XU Jing DAI Kan CHEN Yun WANG Yuedong
    2020, 43(1):10-19. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20200110015
    [Abstract](1423) [HTML](0) [PDF 1005.34 K](2380)
    With the continuous progress and improvement of numerical prediction technology and comprehensive detection system,the typhoon operational prediction of the Central Meteorological Center has made remarkable progress in the past decade,especially the operational prediction level of typhoon track,which has basically reached the international advanced level,but the progress in the prediction of typhoon intensity,wind and rain impact and typhoon risk assessment is relatively slow.This paper reviews the severity of typhoon disaster in China,the importance of Typhoon Forecast in the Central Meteorological Center,the development of Typhoon Forecast of CMC,the role of typhoon forecaster in CMC,the proposal and solution of major scientific problems in typhoon operation,and the promotion and guidance of major scientific research projects for typhoon operation in CMC.Some effective ways to improve the operational typhoon forecast ability in the future are put forward.
    3  Interdecadal variation of Afro-Asian summer monsoon: coordinated effects of AMO and PDO oceanic modes
    DING Yihui LI Yi WANG Zunya SI Dong LIU Yanju
    2020, 43(1):20-32. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191011007
    [Abstract](1534) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.45 M](2702)
    The Afro-Asian summer monsoon system includes the African summer monsoon,the South Asian summer monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon.It is considered to be a subsystem of the global monsoon system,characterized with a highly consistent variability,which is mainly due to the same main driving forces.For example,there are oceanic multi-decadal variability modes in the North Atlantic and northern Pacific oceans,which are referred to as the AMO(Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) and PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation) oceanic modes,respectively.Therefore,starting from this point,this paper has first analyzed the forcing and teleconnection effects of the AMO mode on the Afro-Asian summer monsoon,with a special emphasis placed upon the role of the AMO in the interdecadal transitions of the Afro-Asian summer monsoon and the occurring rainfall rate.Second,this paper has discussed the coordinated effects of the PDO and the preceding winter and spring snow coverage over the Tibetan Plateau on East Asia summer monsoon rain belts.Then,on the above-mentioned basis,the coordinated effects of the AMO,PDO and IOBM(Indian Ocean Basin Mode) are clearly identified.It should be pointed out that the IOMB oceanic mode is considered to be independent from the combined effects of the AMO and PDO oceanic modes in regard to the interdecadal scale effects,and has mainly played an enhancement role in the activities of the East Asian summer monsoon.
    4  Issues in research and development of land surface process model
    DAI Yongjiu
    2020, 43(1):33-38. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20200103006
    [Abstract](1977) [HTML](0) [PDF 948.40 K](2634)
    Land surface process research is the indispensable topic to better understand weather/climate/earth system processes.In this paper,we systematically summarized the issues in the development of land surface process models for use in numerical weather/climate/earth system models.We highly recommend to develop the high-resolution global land surface process model including human activities in the new generation models,and the prediction systems or research methods for different disciplines.We strongly suggest to build a modeling platform that integrate the model development,data analysis,simulation methods,high performance computing,data visualization and application demonstration,and that could provide the land surface models for weather/climate/earth system models and provide scientific and technological support for global and regional hydrological-meteorological-ecological prediction.
    5  Great efforts and brilliant achievements: a retrospect of the development of Atmospheric Sciences in NUIST since 1960
    GUAN Zhaoyong
    2020, 43(1):39-58. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20200126009
    [Abstract](1111) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.09 M](2239)
    Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology was founded and prospers on the basis of meteorology,and is a university with remarkable industry characteristics.Atmospheric Sciences is the discipline foundation and soul of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology.Looking back on the development of the School of Atmospheric Sciences over the past 60 years,brilliant achievements of the School of Atmospheric Sciences have been made through the efforts of several generations,by adhering to reform,innovation and characteristic development.In the 1960s,the School of Atmospheric Sciences was founded to serve the urgent need of the national meteorological cause.After China's Reform and Opening Up,a complete discipline system was constructed to meet the development needs of China's meteorological cause,and significant contributions were made in the development of meteorology of China and of the world as a whole.The Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology School of Atmospheric Sciences has the reputation of being "the cradle for the cultivation of China's Meteorological talents".Since the 21st century,its discipline construction has been further accelerated.In 2017,the School of Atmospheric Sciences was selected into the national "double first-class" discipline,thus beginning a new journey for the construction of world-class discipline.Since this time,facing a new direction of historical development,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology has drawn up a new blueprint for the development of Atmospheric Sciences,created a new plateau for Atmospheric Sciences,and propelled the construction of Atmospheric Sciences into a new stage of high-quality development.
    6  Improving the Penman-Monteith evapotranspiration model based on the coupling principle of carbon and water fluxes
    CHEN Jingming LIU Jingxian LUO Xiangzhong
    2020, 43(1):59-75. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191112007
    [Abstract](2417) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.97 M](2357)
    Evapotranspiration(ET) is an important component of the land water cycle.It includes the evaporation of the soil surface and wet leaves and the transpiration of plants.The Penman-Monteith equation is an important method used to estimate ET.The stomatal conductance of leaves or canopies in the equation is the key factor controlling the estimation accuracy.According to the coupling principle of the carbon and water cycles,a plant photosynthesis model can be used to estimate the stomatal conductance of leaves or canopies.Plant photosynthesis models can be divided into three categories:1) the big-leaf model(BL),which uses total canopy conductance;2) the two big-leaf model(TBL),which distinguishes the canopy conductance of shaded and sunlit leaves;and 3) the two-leaf model(TL),which uses stomatal conductances of shaded and sunlit leaves.Corresponding to these three types of photosynthesis models,three evapotranspiration estimation models based on different conductance calculation methods are then derived.The main difference among the three evapotranspiration models is whether or not the stomatal conductance is integrated from the leaf scale to the canopy scale.Finally,the calculated stomatal conductance is input into the Penman-Monteith equation,so as to estimate the ET.Among them,the BL model has the highest degree of aggregation.Due to the fact that the relationship between the transpiration and stomatal conductance is nonlinear,the aggregation of stomatal conductance will lead to negative bias in ET estimation.Also,as the BL model has the largest aggregation of stomatal conductance,the bias error also the greatest.The results of previous studies show that the TL evapotranspiration model causes no significant bias error in comparison with flux measurements.
    7  Impact of aerosols on the weather,climate and environment of China: an overview
    LI Zhanqing
    2020, 43(1):76-92. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20200115005
    [Abstract](2253) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.73 M](3544)
    Air pollution,weather and climate are closely related to the life of local residents.Global change and sustainable development are common challenges currently faced by all of humankind,yet the issues of air pollution and climate change are especially significant in developing countries.China,as a developing country with the world's largest population and fastest development,is faced with particularly severe challenges in these two regards.Therefore,a thorough understanding of the causes and development mechanisms of air pollution and climate change,as well as a clear understanding of their interrelationship,are of guiding significance to the formulation of sustainable development policies.Along with the development of global change research,aerosols and greenhouse gases,namely the two most important human emissions affecting the Earth's climate,play an important role in climate change science.As a result,aerosol research has become one of the fastest growing branches of geoscience research.The characteristics of China's weather and climate change,such as the increase in high temperature,decrease of cold waves,decrease of wind speed,stabilization of the atmosphere,decrease of light rain,increase of heavy rain,increase of thunderstorms and weakening of monsoons are all related to air pollution by varying degrees.This paper mainly reviews the influence of aerosols on weather and climate in China and the air pollution issues related to meteorological factors,focusing on the complex relationship between aerosols and extreme weather events,including the degree and mechanism of impact.The research method involves an analysis of the comprehensive observation data of satellite,earth and space,along with model simulation.The observation data include long-term historical observation data,short-term enhanced observation experiment data,and global satellite data.
    8  Relationship between Eurasian cold-season snows and Asian summer monsoons: regional characteristics and seasonality
    LU Mengmeng WU Renguang YANG Song WANG Zhibiao
    2020, 43(1):93-103. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191025001
    [Abstract](1604) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.38 M](2184)
    This paper reviews the progress of research on the relationship between Eurasian cold-season snows and Asian summer monsoons,especially the impact of snow on monsoon evolution and intensity.From Blanford (1884)'s research on snow at the Himalayan station to the appearance of large-scale snow datasets based on satellite measurement since the 1970s,together with the combination of global climate modeling and observational analysis,snow-monsoon relationship and the related physical processes have been investigated extensively.On one hand,snow influences atmospheric temperature,corresponding temperature gradient,and atmospheric circulation through the snow albedo effect.On the other hand,it affects the atmosphere especially the persistency of atmospheric anomalous signals through the snow-melt hydrological effect.There exists a positive interaction between snow and atmospheric circulations in those processes.This paper mainly focuses on various impacts of Eurasian snow at different places and in different seasons on Asian summer monsoons in different regions.It also studies the effects of snow on the characteristics of monsoon evolution at different stages.Revealing those complicated relationships is crucial for better understanding the overall variations of the monsoon system and is useful for improving the seasonal forecast of summer monsoons.
    9  The role of intraseasonal oscillation at mid-high latitudes in regulating the formation and maintenance of Okhotsk blocking in boreal summer
    YANG Shuangyan LI Tim
    2020, 43(1):104-115. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191001010
    [Abstract](1220) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.53 M](2260)
    In this study,by using daily data from the Department of Energy Reanalysis at the National Center for Environmental Prediction,dating from 1979 to 2015,we investigated the connection between Okhotsk blockings and mid-high latitude atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) in the boreal winter.The results showed that the ISO perturbation over a key area of 60°-75°N,130°-160°E is the most greatly co-variated with Okhotsk blockings.The averaged geopotential height over this key area exhibits a statistically significant 10 to 30-day periodicity.By applying lead-lag composite analysis,it is revealed that the ISO perturbation associated with the Okhotsk blocking activity exhibits pronounced westward propagation.The perturbation initiates at about 140°W,triggered by intraseasonal wave energy accumulation.A geopotential tendency diagnosis reveals that the time change rate of the geopotential height over the key area is primarily attributed to the dynamic process.In addition,the results of a scale analysis show that the advection of mean vorticity by the ISO meridional flow plays a dominant role in the time change rate of the geopotential height during the occurrence and maintenance of the summertime Okhotsk blockings.
    10  Impact multipath quality control improving GPS RO data assimilation in the tropical lower troposphere
    ZOU Xiaolei LIU Hui
    2020, 43(1):116-127. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191019002
    [Abstract](529) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.46 M](2088)
    The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere,and Climate(COSMIC-2) has more powerful GPS receiver antennas,a twice higher sampling rate of 100 Hz,and a three times smaller inclination of 24° than those of COSMIC-1.COSMIC-2 will,therefore,provide an unprecedented ample number of radio occultation(RO) data in the tropics.Assimilation of RO data in the tropics is challenging due to unique features such as large horizontal gradients of refractivity,spherical asymmetry,and impact multipath in the moist tropical lower troposphere.Bending angle data assimilation in the tropical lower troposphere is done in this study using a two-dimensional(2D) limited-ray-path raytracing operator and a one-dimensional(1D) Abel transform operator.An impact multipath quality control(QC) developed in our previous study is incorporated to eliminate occurrences of impact multipath in bending angle simulations.The fractional differences in bending angle simulations between the limited-path-length raytracing operators and the original 2D raytracing operator have zero bias,and their standard deviations are more than three times smaller than those between the 1D Abel transform operator and the 2D raytracing operator.The highest accuracy and precision are achieved for the 2D limited-ray-path raytracing operator if the ray path is confined within±400 km.Use of the physically based impact multipath QC is shown to improve COSMIC data assimilation and forecast results using either the 1D Abel transform or the 2D limited-ray-path observation operators of bending angle in the tropical lower troposphere.
    11  Introduction to climate forecast system version 1.0 of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
    HE Jiaying WU Jiye LUO Jingjia
    2020, 43(1):128-143. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191110007
    [Abstract](1448) [HTML](0) [PDF 4.55 M](2412)
    Based on the JAMSTEC SINTEX-F model,this paper developed NUIST climate forecast system 1.0 version (NUIST CFS1.0) for seasonal-to-multiyear forecasts of global climate anomalies.The 9-member ensemble hindcast experiments during 1982-2018 were conducted using the NUIST super-computer.The assessment of the hindcasts shows that NUIST CFS1.0 displays useful skills in predicting sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean.In particular,ENSO (Niño3.4 index) is skillfully predicted up to 1.5 to 2 years in advance.And the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can be predicted 1-2 seasons in advance.It shows good prediction skills for major tropical climate signals.However,prediction of the East Asia climate is rather poor,which is a long-standing problem in almost all current and past dynamical prediction systems.Considering the large impact of ENSO on East Asia climate,this paper adopted a simple method to improve prediction of NUIST CFS1.0 by correcting the systematic biases of model in predicting the impact of ENSO on climate in East Asia in summer.The results suggest that this simple correction method can improve both the hindcast and real time forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation anomaly percentage in China.The spatial pattern correlations of the two variables in China are increased to some degree.Further improvement of the forecast system and correction methods are under development.In addition,a preliminary assessment of the climate prediction in winter and spring is performed.Real time forecasts of the temperature anomalies and precipitation anomaly percentages in China during winter 2019/2020 and spring 2020 are provided.
    12  Research review on dust and pollution using spaceborne lidar in China
    WANG Tianhe SUN Mengxian HUANG Jianping
    2020, 43(1):144-158. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191120007
    [Abstract](904) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.90 M](2160)
    As a new active remote sensing detection tool,lidar is widely used in many fields,such as atmospheric remote sensing,environmental monitoring and so on.With the advantages of large detection range,high spatial and temporal resolutions and continuous profile data,the spaceborne lidar has become a powerful tool for observing and studying aerosol and cloud properties at global and regional scales.This paper summarized the progresses of dust aerosols and pollution made by Chinese scientists since the launch of CALIPSO satellite in 2006.The results mainly focused on the following aspects:the spatial and temporal distributions and long-distance transmission of dust aerosols,the classification of natural and anthropogenic dust,the optical properties and emissions of dust aerosols,the dust-radiation-climate effects,as well as the haze and smoke characteristics.The review of the above research results will help us to have a deep understanding of the research level of dust and pollution in China by using the spaceborne lidar,and also will lay a research foundation for exploring the remote sensing application field of satellite-borne lidar independently researched and developed by China in the future.
    13  Decadal prediction system IAP-DecPreS and its predictive skill
    ZHOU Tianjun WU Bo HU Shuai
    2020, 43(1):159-168. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191210001
    [Abstract](1690) [HTML](0) [PDF 3.84 M](2178)
    Decadal climate prediction(near-term climate prediction) targeting the climate states over future 1-10 years is an international research hotspot of the climate area.This paper summarizes the progresses of a decadal climate prediction system,IAP-DecPreS,which was developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.The key part of the IAP-DecPreS is an initialization scheme for the ocean component of a coupled general circulation model.The initialization scheme was referred to as EnOI-IAU scheme,which is a combination of the Ensemble Optimal interpolation(EnOI) and Incremental analysis update(IAU).It can initialize the coupled model via assimilating raw observational oceanic temperature profiles.Hindcast experiments indicated that the IAP-DecPreS has predictive skill for the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic multi-decadal variability(AMV),comparable with the high-skill CMIP5 models.IAP-DecPreS has been widely used in the climate research,including the impacts of volcanic eruptions on the decadal predictive skill,the impacts of two distinct initialization approaches,full-field assimilation and anomaly assimilation,on the predictions of ENSO,Indian Ocean dipole and Indian Ocean basin mode.At last,the authors discuss the future development of the IAP-DecPreS under the guidance of global perspective.
    14  Advances in the kinetic thermodynamics of moist air and their application
    GAO Shouting ZHOU Yushu RAN Lingkun
    2020, 43(1):169-180. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191018012
    [Abstract](1054) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.31 M](2320)
    In this study,the kinetic equations,thermodynamic equations,energy equations and continuous equations of unsaturated moist atmosphere,saturated moist atmosphere and non-uniformly saturated moist atmosphere are combined by reviewing the current research progress of moisture atmospheric thermal dynamics.It is observed that the most notable difference between the saturated and the non-uniform saturated moist atmosphere momentum equation is the distinctive method that is used while dealing with the condensation process.In saturated moist air it is difficult to distinguish the veritable moisture condensation area,as the hydrometeors caused by saturation probably appear ubiquitously,while it is easy to discriminate between the moist condensation area and non-condensation area in a non-uniformly saturated moist atmosphere.Due to the fact that water vapor will not condensate in the area with smaller relative humidity,as the generation of the moist condensation is concerned with the exponentiation of relative humidity (as well as the distribution of the condensation probability function),this condensation procedure is more similar to that in an actual atmospheric environment.Furthermore,this paper summarizes the application of the non-uniformly distributed dynamical and thermal physical quantities of moisture condensation saturation in moist air as observed in high-impact weather analysis,and finally discusses of the dominant problems that may arise in the future study of moisture atmospheric dynamics.
    15  Physics of the control of the Tibetan Plateau on regional energetic processes and global climate
    LIU Yimin LI Weiping LIU Xin WANG Xiaocong FU Rong LIU Ping
    2020, 43(1):181-192. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191229006
    [Abstract](535) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.18 M](2023)
    This paper is the outcome of the research on the way Tibetan Plateau(TP) regulates regional energetic processes and global climate,which is a key project sponsored by NSFC.The results can be summarized as follows.The concept of Tibetan-Iranian Plateau coupling system(TIPS) was proposed,which was characterized by a unique vertical motion over the Asian subtropical monsoon region.The TIPS was formed by surface sensible heating of the Iranian Plateau(IP) and TP as well as the interaction between them.Studies revealed the variability surface heat flux in TIPs and a unique cloud-precipitation-radiation structure over TP.The influence of TIPS on Asian summer monsoon,in view of astronomical and hydrological perspectives,was verified.Studies clarified the effect of TIPs on South Asian High,which led to warm upper troposphere and cool lower stratosphere.Their influences on northern hemisphere circulation,Indian Ocean air-sea interaction and the inter-annual variability of South Asian High were also explored.A new mechanism was proposed on how the plateau forced to trigger intense weather events in eastern China.The studies also revealed the physical proess of the cold surface temperature bias in CMIP5 models,which was a result of dynamical coupling between atmospheric circulation and snow albedo.
    16  An assessment of predictability through state-of-the-art global ensemble forecast system
    ZHU Yuejian
    2020, 43(1):193-200. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191101013
    [Abstract](1399) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.23 M](2156)
    In order to provide valuable and reliable numerical guidance include probabilistic forecast,state-of-the-art global ensemble forecast system has been implemented into National Centers for Environmental Prediction daily operation to service the general public.The forecast skills for various elements through statistical verification are offering the levels of confidence to general users when they apply these guidance.However,the skills are all differents rely on the forecast elements,spatial and temporal resolutions,and special events or the forecast extremes.As an example of large scale pattern prediction,the global ensemble forecast system (global ensemble mean) could provide about 10 days skillful forecast on average based on 60% Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height anomaly correlation.The predictability or limit of prediction we will discuss in this article could be a good reference for model developers,stakeholders and general users in terms of their requirements from various forecast elements to the different spatial-temporal scales.Especially,the investigation of sources predictability are very important to advance our numerical system in terms of science and technowledge.When we understand the source of predictability,the scientists will know where to work on,and how to improve the system.To combine the traditional predictability study and recently developed global ensemble forecast system with full representation of uncertainty,the predictability and limit of prediction through state-of-art global ensemble forecast system could be another valuable reference.As a summary of predictability investigation,there could be about 15-,12-,10-days forecast skills for planetary wave,large scale and synoptic scale patterns respectively.For tropical prediction,a skill of Madden-Julian Oscillation could be extended to 32.5 days if we could reduce model bias and improve others.
    17  Linkage between summer land surface warming in mid-latitude of East Asia and soil moisture anomalies
    YU Bo CHEN Haishan SUN Yue
    2020, 43(1):201-211. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20190407001
    [Abstract](1802) [HTML](0) [PDF 7.75 M](2428)
    Based on the ERA-Interim NCEP/NCAP reanalysis data and CPC soil moisture data during 1979-2015,this paper investigated the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of land surface heat in mid-latitude of East Asia in summer and the linkage between soil moisture anomalies in early spring and anomalous land surface warming in mid-latitude of East Asia,and discussed the possible mechanisms of the influence of soil moisture in early spring on the land surface heat warming in mid-latitude of East Asia in summer.Results show that there is a significant warming trend of summer land surface in mid-latitude of East Asia with the most rapid and strongest warming happened in the Lake Baikal and its south.Meanwhile,there is an evident interdecadal transition from cold to warm around the middle of 1990s.Further analysis suggests that there are close relationships between spring and summer soil moisture anomalies over regions from the West Siberia to the north of the Lake Baikal and summer soil surface temperature in the Lake Baikal and its south at both interdecadal and interannual scales.Increased spring and summer soil moisture over regions from the West Siberia to the north of the Lake Baikal is usually related to summer land surface warming in the Lake Baikal and its south.The anomalous soil moisture can alter the general circulation anomalies in summer,thus affect the land surface thermal anomalies in mid-latitude of East Asia in summer.Increased spring and summer soil moisture tends to induce positive geopotential height anomalies and anticyclonic anomalous circulation in the Lake Baikal and its south,which can further reduce summer cloud amount over the region and result in significant land surface warming in mid-latitude of East Asia.On the contrary,decreased spring and summer soil moisture usually produces cyclonic anomalous circulation and increases summer cloud amount,which is not conducive to land surface warming over the region.
    18  Subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S) prediction using the spatial-temporal projection model(STPM)
    HSU Pang-chi ZANG Yuxin ZHU Zhiwei LI Tim
    2020, 43(1):212-224. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191028002
    [Abstract](2749) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.01 M](2811)
    With the current developments of numerical weather forecasting technology and seasonal prediction systems,the ability of short-term weather forecast and long-term climate prediction continues to improve.However,the prediction skill of the subseasonal to seasonal(S2S,two weeks to three months) system is relatively weak,and this has become a challenging issue for the meteorological community and operational services.In 2012,the research team led by Prof.Tim Li at Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology developed the spatial-temporal projection model (STPM).The STPM exhibits high skill in predicting the rainfall and temperature anomalies and extreme events in China,such as extreme precipitation,heatwave,extreme cold days and typhoon clustering events,at the lead time of 10 to 30 d.Real-time extended-range weather forecast have been carried out using the STPM at the National Climate Center and in several provinces.In addition to the subseasonal forecast,the STPM has also been successfully applied to the forecasts of spring rain in Taiwan,the onset of the South China Sea monsoon and ENSO.In the present paper,we introduce the physical basis of S2S prediction and the development and application of STPM,and discuss the challenges and future prospects of S2S prediction.
    19  A review on multi-scale drought processes and prediction under global change
    YUAN Xing MA Feng LI Hua CHEN Sisi
    2020, 43(1):225-237. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191105005
    [Abstract](3143) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.24 M](3144)
    Drought is defined as a period of climate anomaly,which is mainly driven by natural climate variability.It has the characteristics of slow development,long duration and wide range.However,due to climate change,drought is occurring with increased frequency and changing characteristics.For example,a type of drought with rapid development,also known as flash drought,has occurred frequently in recent years.Moreover,human activities also affect the processes of drought by altering the terrestrial water cycle.Under global change,drought research has been extended from understanding climate dynamics of meteorological drought by considering ocean-land-atmosphere interaction to investigating the propagation from meteorological drought to agricultural and hydrological droughts with the influence of human activities.The latter will provide direct climate service for agricultural,water resources,forest sectors,but they also bring new challenges for understanding of drought predictability and developing drought forecasting methods,especially in the Anthropocene.In this paper,we review the advances in multi-scale drought processes and prediction,and discuss future directions.
    20  Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific: a review
    JIN Rui YU Hui WU Zhiwei TANG Jie
    2020, 43(1):238-254. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191025006
    [Abstract](1621) [HTML](0) [PDF 1.07 M](2426)
    In this paper,the external forcing factors and internal variabilities which impact the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity (WNPTC) on the sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale were reviewed,along with the associated mechanisms.Additionally,the developing history and current situation were summarized for the prediction techniques,including statistical,dynamical and hybrid statistical-dynamical approaches.Also discussed were several scientific issues which require further research,as well as the future trends of prediction technique development.
    21  CMIP5 projected changes in mean and extreme climate in the Belt and Road region
    ZHOU Botao XU Ying HAN Zhenyu SHI Ying WU Jia LI Rouke
    2020, 43(1):255-264. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20191125009
    [Abstract](5903) [HTML](0) [PDF 2.46 M](2845)
    In this study,based on the simulation results from 18 CMIP5 models,the future changes of the mean and extreme climate in the Belt and Road under three representative concentration pathways(RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are projected.The results show that the annual temperature in the Belt and Road would continue to rise in the future as a response to the continuous emission of greenhouse gases,and in addition the rising amplitude tends to increase with the enhancement of greenhouse gas emission.Under the high emission (RCP8.5) scenario,the increase of annual temperature would generally exceed 5℃ by the end of the 21st century,with the greatest warming occurring in West Asia and North Asia,and the smallest in South Asia and Southeast Asia.The annual precipitation is projected to increase over most of the region,particularly in West Asia and North Asia,where the projected increases under the RCP2.6 scenario is greater than that under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the middle of the 21st century,while the case is reversed with larger increase in the RCP8.5 scenario than in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios by the end of the 21st century.Extreme temperature is also projected to increase in the future,with the warming amplitude in the high latitudes being greater than in the low latitudes,and that under the high emission scenario greater than under the low emission scenario.Moreover,the increase in the extreme low temperature is greater than that of the extreme high temperature over the high latitudes.The number of consecutive dry days is projected to decrease in North Asia and East Asia,while increasing in other regions.The projected extreme precipitation tends to intensify in the Belt and Road,and the greatest intensification appears in South Asia,Southeast Asia and East Asia.

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