Decadal prediction system IAP-DecPreS and its predictive skill
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    Abstract:

    Decadal climate prediction(near-term climate prediction) targeting the climate states over future 1-10 years is an international research hotspot of the climate area.This paper summarizes the progresses of a decadal climate prediction system,IAP-DecPreS,which was developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences.The key part of the IAP-DecPreS is an initialization scheme for the ocean component of a coupled general circulation model.The initialization scheme was referred to as EnOI-IAU scheme,which is a combination of the Ensemble Optimal interpolation(EnOI) and Incremental analysis update(IAU).It can initialize the coupled model via assimilating raw observational oceanic temperature profiles.Hindcast experiments indicated that the IAP-DecPreS has predictive skill for the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic multi-decadal variability(AMV),comparable with the high-skill CMIP5 models.IAP-DecPreS has been widely used in the climate research,including the impacts of volcanic eruptions on the decadal predictive skill,the impacts of two distinct initialization approaches,full-field assimilation and anomaly assimilation,on the predictions of ENSO,Indian Ocean dipole and Indian Ocean basin mode.At last,the authors discuss the future development of the IAP-DecPreS under the guidance of global perspective.

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周天军,吴波,胡帅,2020. IAP-DecPreS年代际气候预测系统及其预报技巧[J].大气科学学报,43(1):159-168.
ZHOU Tianjun, WU Bo, HU Shuai,2020. Decadal prediction system IAP-DecPreS and its predictive skill[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,43(1):159-168. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20191210001

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History
  • Received:December 10,2019
  • Revised:December 29,2019
  • Adopted:
  • Online: April 30,2020
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