Arctic interest game and risk assessment in the context of climate change: modeling and simulation
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    Abstract:

    Due to the lack of quantitative data regarding Arctic risk assessment,the difficulties in quantifying qualitative knowledge,and the subjectivity in determining weight factors,the traditional risk assessment methods cannot be effectively solved.Therefore,in this paper the quantitative analysis of qualitative knowledge is realized by introducing the "cloud model".First,the objectivity of the weights is improved by the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP).Next,in response to the change of the Arctic regional response and its geopolitics and the game of interests under the background of climate change,the above methods and techniques are improved.This paper then presents an evaluation model and experimental simulation of interest games and security risks in the Arctic,and proposes some research opinions and information pertaining to decision-making consultation.

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杨孟倩,张韧,葛珊珊,王哲,徐威,2019.气候变化背景下北极利益博弈与风险评估——建模与仿真[J].大气科学学报,42(5):672-679.
YANG Mengqian, ZHANG Ren, GE Shanshan, WANG Zhe, XU Wei,2019. Arctic interest game and risk assessment in the context of climate change: modeling and simulation[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,42(5):672-679. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20170121001

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History
  • Received:January 21,2017
  • Revised:August 22,2017
  • Adopted:
  • Online: November 12,2019
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