Analysis of the process and mechanisms of genesis and development for 2014-2016 mega El Niño event
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    Abstract:

    The present paper has mainly analysed the process and mechanisms of genesis and development of the 2014-2016 mega El Niño event.It is shown that the entire lifecycle of the event is about 2 years(from April 2014 to May 2016),with four stages identified for its evolutive process:(1)Early and continuous westerly wind bursts(December 2013 to April 2014).The continuous three westerly wind burstsnot only changed the state of the easterly trade wind prevailing tropical central and easterly in the Pacific for long period of time,but also changed the cold water state in this region for the most recent 12 years,thus leading to SST rise and warming.Until early spring 2014,the SSTA exceeded 0.5℃,marking the possible occurrence of a new El Niño event.(2)Alternative weakening period(June 2014 to August 2015).Six westerly wind bursts continued to occur,thus maintaining and enhancing the warming of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific,while at the same time overcoming two periods of SST warming decrease or barrier,so that the initial development of El Niño was not aborted,and even changed into the stage of strong El Niño.Correspondingly,in the sub layer of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific,six warm Kelvin waves were observed to propagate eastward.The heat contents of these oceanic waves not only maintained the continuous warming in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific,but also caused El Niño to change from CP to EP type.(3)Peak period of development (September 2015 to February 2016).Two stronger westerly wind bursts were observed,which corresponded to very vigorous convective activity on the equatorial central and eastern Pacific.Rapid warming occurred in the Niño3.4 region,with 3℃observed in November 2015,classified as the mega-El Niño event.(4)Accelerating weakening stage(March to May 2016).The intensity of the El Niño rapidly weakened from 2 to 0.5℃ in the Niño3.4 region,then accelerated the transition to the cold water phase.In July to August 2016,the SSTA in the Niño3.4 region already approached -0.5℃.This rapid phase shift is a manifestation of the theory of delayed oscillation.From the above results,it is concluded that the development and shift of warm and cold phases is observationally consistent with the mechanism derived from the paradigm of the current theory of recharge oscillation and/or delayed oscillation theory.This clearly demonstrates that the results of the El Niño theory effectively underpin the development of related operational prediction.

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丁一汇,2016.2014-2016年超强El Niño事件的发生发展过程与机理分析[J].大气科学学报,39(6):722-734. DING Yihui,2016. Analysis of the process and mechanisms of genesis and development for 2014-2016 mega El Niño event[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,39(6):722-734.

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History
  • Received:October 28,2016
  • Revised:November 04,2016
  • Adopted:
  • Online: December 27,2016
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