The ensemble forecasting technique of the thunderstorm and its application
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    Abstract:

    A thunderstorm ensemble forecasting approach is performed by the ensemble analysis of the cloud model’s forecast results according to the initial condition aggregation provided by the grid forecast results of the mesoscale non-hydrostatic WRF model.The approach is applied to forecast the characteristics of thunderstorm around Nanjing one day in advance and is verified by the Doppler radar data of the thunderstorms in summer in Nanjing.Results show that the intensity and distribution of thunderstorms over the research area is reasonably predicted one day in advance.It is particularly good to forecast the distribution of the strong thunderstorms by using the ensemble forecasting technique.Moreover,the application of the PDF(probability density function)of thunderstorms’ duration into the probability forecasting of the influenced area of thunderstorms improves the radar’s warning and monitoring capacity of local thunderstorms.

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王佳,智协飞,陈钰文,商兆堂,白卡娃,2012.雷暴云的集合预报技术及其应用[J].大气科学学报,35(4):458-465.
WANG Jia, ZHI Xie-fei, CHEN Yu-wen, SHANG Zhao-tang, BAI Ka-wa,2012. The ensemble forecasting technique of the thunderstorm and its application[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,35(4):458-465.

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History
  • Received:June 17,2011
  • Revised:October 08,2011
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