From the factors leading to a disaster,those more directly related with heavy rain disasters can be collected by analyzing the relationship between the heavy rain and the subsequent disaster loss systematically.An evaluation model of regional heavy rain strength is established by using the methods of normal distribution probability density function and minimum distance.On that basis,by using the analogy method,a model for quantitative preestimate of heavy rain disaster loss from May to September in Hubei Province is established by analyzing the similarities in the disaster loss in some heavy rain cases in history.It shows that analogy method is practical in quantitative preestimate of heavy rain disaster loss according to the test results from 2008 to 2009.