Estimate of Climatic Noise and Potential Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation in China
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    Abstract:

    Based on the daily precipitation data of 130 stations selected over China from 1961 to 2004,the variance due to climatic noise and potential predictability of seasonal precipitation over China are estimated in terms of low frequency white noise extension method and the analysis of variance.Results show that the variance due to the climatic noise of seasonal precipitation decreases gradually from south to north and from the coastal to the inland.It varies with markedly seasonal variations,with the greatest in summer and the smallest in winter,and the seasonal variation is larger in the inland than that in the inshore.Although potential predictability of seasonal precipitation is different from season to season and from area to area,the seasonal precipitation of the most areas over China can be predicted.Regarding the absolute error which is smaller than 0.68 times of standard deviation as the criterion of correct prediction,the upper limit of the prediction accuracy would be 50% to 60% in a majority of China.

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赵晓川,吴洪宝,何浪,2008.中国季降水量的气候噪声和潜在可预报性估计[J].大气科学学报,31(6):819-827.
ZHAO Xiao-chuan, WU Hong-bao, HE Lang,2008. Estimate of Climatic Noise and Potential Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation in China[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,31(6):819-827.

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History
  • Received:September 07,2007
  • Revised:December 17,2007
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