A Forecast Model Experiment in Studying Extreme-value Weather with Stochastic Simulation
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    Abstract:

    The cross theory of stationary stochastic process is used in the analysis of weather and climate extreme value in this paper.The monthly maximum and minimum temperatures in the Yangtze delta are instanced to explain the application of cross theory in the study on extreme value.Based on the theory,the sensitivity of extreme value parameters,such as frequency,duration and time interval,to Shanghai's monthly average temperature series of the last 100 years is discussed in terms of stochastic simulation,and the statistical character of extreme values of the future climate is predicted.

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刘吉峰,丁裕国,程炳岩,2002.利用随机模拟研究极值天气的预报模型试验[J].大气科学学报,25(6):823-829.
LIU Ji feng, DING Yu guo, CHENG Bing yan,2002. A Forecast Model Experiment in Studying Extreme-value Weather with Stochastic Simulation[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,25(6):823-829.

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History
  • Received:April 19,2002
  • Revised:July 05,2002
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