南通一次飑线大风过程数值模拟及诊断分析
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国家自然科学基金项目(42475157;41805070;42205060);福建省灾害天气重点实验室和中国气象局海峡灾害天气重点开放实验室开放课题(2023KFKT03;2024KFKT04);中国气象局龙卷风重点开放实验室开放课题(TKL202306);上海台风研究基金项目(TFJJ202107);国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3004103)


Numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of a squall line wind event in Nantong,China
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    摘要:

    利用实况资料和再分析资料,结合WRF(weather research and forecasting)模式对南通一次极端大风过程进行诊断分析及数值模拟。分析了该个例发生的天气形势背景和系统的水平、垂直结构,探究大风天气成因,并进一步对比不同参数化方案的模拟效果。结果表明:1)大风过程发生在高空深厚冷涡和地面强暖湿低压的环流背景下,上空存在不稳定层结和不稳定能量的累积;雷暴大风在12—13时经历了发展、成熟、消散3个阶段,飑线以碎块型的方式形成。2)3种微物理方案中,MG方案模拟出更大面积的层云、强回波和极端大风,模拟的最大地面阵风为44.47 m·s-1。Lin方案较好地模拟出飑线的演变过程和垂直结构特征,模拟的最强上升气流达23.55 m·s-1,下沉气流达-13.21 m·s-1。3)水平方向上,雷暴大风附近存在成熟的飑线地面中尺度系统,地面存在深厚冷池出流、变压梯度大值区和冷锋过境,它们共同促进了地面大风的生成。4)垂直方向上,对流单体上空高层辐散、低层辐合,存在强上升气流和水汽潜热释放;后侧的干空气蒸发和粒子的拖曳加强下沉运动,配合地面冷池出流和辐散气流,造成了极端大风天气。

    Abstract:

    Squall lines are a common form of severe convective weather,characterized by their abrupt onset,short duration,and localized spatial extent.Due to the limitations of conventional observational networks in capturing their detailed structural and dynamic characteristics,high-resolution numerical simulations are essential for in-depth analysis.In mesoscale modeling,microphysics parameterization schemes exert a significant influence on the vertical distribution of temperature and humidity,making them a key factor in accurately reproducing extreme weather events.Therefore,evaluating the performance and mechanisms of different microphysics schemes under specific convective scenarios is critical for improving forecasting and early warning capabilities.Located in the East Asian monsoon region,Jiangsu Province frequently experiences severe convective weather in spring.On April 30,2021,a squall line associated with a severe convective event impacted Nantong,Jiangsu,producing extreme surface winds,including a gust of 47.9 m·s-1 (Beaufort scale 15) in Tongzhou Bay.This study investigates the event using observational and reanalysis data,along with numerical simulations conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model employing three microphysics schemes:Lin,Morrison-Gettelman (MG),and WSM6.The analysis focuses on the synoptic environment,structural characteristics,and physical mechanisms associated with the extreme winds and provides a comparative evaluation of the simulation performance.The results indicate the following:1) The squall line developed under the influence of a deep upper-level cold vortex and a strong surface warm-moist low-pressure system,with instability and energy accumulation evident aloft.The system followed a broken-areal development pattern,evolving through initiation,maturity,and dissipation between 1200 and 1300 UTC.Radar observations revealed a bow echo and a V-notch signature.2) The Lin scheme most accurately simulated the life cycle and vertical structure of the squall line,with maximum updrafts of 23.55 m·s-1 and downdrafts of -13.21 m·s-1.The MG scheme showed a temporal lag in simulating convective cell evolution,while the WSM6 scheme failed to reproduce a distinct squall-line echo.However,the MG scheme performed best in capturing the intensity and spatial distribution of extreme surface winds,successfully reproducing a maximum gust of 44.47 m·s-1 consistent with observations.The Lin and WSM6 schemes showed comparable overall performance,with the Lin scheme providing a more realistic thermodynamic structures.3) At the surface,a mesoscale system comprising a rear-wake low,thunderstorm high,and pre-squall mesolow was identified near the squall line.These features,along with cold pool outflows,strong pressure gradients,and cold frontal passage,collectively contributed to the formation of damaging surface gusts.4) Vertically,the convective system was characterized by upper-level divergence,low-level convergence,a mid-level warm layer,and a cold lower layer.Intense updrafts and latent heat release ahead of the squall line,in conjunction with strong vertical wind shear,created a favorable environment for the development of severe surface winds.
    This study provides insights into the dynamic and thermodynamic processes driving squall-line-induced damaging winds and assesses the capability of different microphysics schemes in simulating such events.The findings contribute to the advancement of numerical modeling of convective systems and offer reference values for future research.However,as the conclusions are based on a single case study,further validation using multiple events is required.Future work will examine the effects of model horizontal and vertical resolution on the simulation of gust front dynamics and associated thermodynamic processes.

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李昌昕,许冬梅,李泓,刘德强,费海燕,孙启龙,王易,沈菲菲,2025.南通一次飑线大风过程数值模拟及诊断分析[J].大气科学学报,48(4):686-704.
LI Changxin, XU Dongmei, LI Hong, LIU Deqiang, FEI Haiyan, SUN Qilong, WANG Yi, SHEN Feifei,2025. Numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of a squall line wind event in Nantong, China[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,48(4):686-704. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20240828001

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  • 收稿日期:2024-08-28
  • 最后修改日期:2025-02-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-11
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