四川东北部一次强降水过程云微物理方案敏感性试验及与GPM卫星资料的对比分析
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西南区域人工影响天气能力建设项目(SCIT-ZG(Z)-2024100001);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(SCQXKJYJXZD202407);中国气象局-成都信息工程大学人工影响天气联合研究中心开放课题(2024GDRY003)


Comparative analysis of cloud microphysics scheme sensitivity experiments and GPM satellite data during a heavy rainfall event in northeastern Sichuan
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    摘要:

    为研究云降水物理过程对四川盆地东北部暴雨的影响,利用FNL(final operational global analysis)全球分析资料和WRF(weather research and forecasting)模式4.3版对2022年10月4—5日发生的一次典型强降水过程进行云微物理方案敏感性试验,并与CMPAS(China Meteorological Administration multi-source merged precipitation analysis system)融合降水数据、GPM(global precipitation measurement)卫星探测产品进行对比分析。结果表明,6种微物理方案对川东北的降水范围模拟较好,雨带呈东北-西南走向,但强度偏弱,Lin和WSM6方案模拟出了强降水中心,空间分布与降水实况大致相同。Lin、WSM6和WDM6方案模拟的云场分布和强度最接近GPM卫星观测值,6种微物理方案对雨水含量的模拟最好,对云水和冰水含量的模拟呈现低估。云水、雨水和冰水在垂直方向上的匹配程度是此次模式预报差异产生的原因;另外,不同方案模拟的云微物理结构上的差异,以及各类水成物粒子的含量和分布是否有利于雪、霰粒子的生成及增长也是预报差异产生的重要原因;WSM6方案模拟的水成物在空间上更加匹配,模拟的降水极值更接近观测值,模拟效果相对较好。

    Abstract:

    To investigate the influence of cloud microphysical processes on a heavy rainfall event in the northeastern Sichuan Basin,sensitivity experiments using different microphysics schemes were conducted with the WRF (weather research and forecasting) model version 4.3,driven by FNL global reanalysis data. The simulations focused on a typical rainstorm that occurred from October 4 to 5,2022,and were evaluated against CMPAS (China Meteorological Administration multi-source merged precipitation analysis system) precipitation data and GPM (global precipitation measurement) satellite products. Results indicated that all six microphysics schemes reproduced the general northeast-southwest-oriented distribution of rainfall,although simulated intensities were generally weaker than observed. Among the schemes,Lin and WSM6 produced precipitation centers and spatial patterns most consistent with observations. In terms of cloud structure,simulations using Lin,WSM6,and WDM6 schemes aligned best with cloud distributions captured by GPM. The vertical distributions of cloud water,rainwater,and ice water varied significantly among schemes,contributing to differences in simulated rainfall. Compared with GPM data,the WSM6 and WDM6 schemes demonstrated better vertical correspondence of hydrometeors across different time periods and altitudes. Variations in the formation and growth of snow and graupel also played a critical role in simulation discrepancies,reflecting differences in microphysical structures and the distribution of hydrometeors. The Lin scheme produced the most graupel and the least snow,which may have limited ice-phase precipitation enhancement. In contrast,the CAM scheme lacked graupel,hindering the formation of heavy rainfall,while the Thompson and Morrison schemes simulated only small amounts. The WDM6 scheme showed a precipitation peak near the 0 ℃ layer in the upper warm layer,with a downward decrease in intensity,suggesting weak collision-coalescence processes and significant rainwater evaporation. Overall,the WSM6 scheme produced the most accurate simulation,yielding a more realistic spatial distribution of hydrometeors and closer agreement with observed extreme precipitation.

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刘志,刘卫国,祁红彦,2025.四川东北部一次强降水过程云微物理方案敏感性试验及与GPM卫星资料的对比分析[J].大气科学学报,48(4):637-652.
LIU Zhi, LIU Weiguo, QI Hongyan,2025. Comparative analysis of cloud microphysics scheme sensitivity experiments and GPM satellite data during a heavy rainfall event in northeastern Sichuan[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,48(4):637-652. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20240207001

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  • 收稿日期:2024-02-07
  • 最后修改日期:2024-07-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-11
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