全球大气再分析及其在中国的适用性
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国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0801302);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41930970)


Global atmospheric reanalyses and their applicability in China
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    摘要:

    再分析基于物理模式对观测空白区域进行时间和空间插值,并提供未观测变量的估计,解决了观测站点稀疏且分布不规则的问题。为了提高精度,目前主流的全球大气再分析都同化尽可能多的观测数据,即全输入大气再分析。虽然模式和同化方法固定不变,但是观测系统一直在变,主要变化有现代探空观测的引用(20世纪50年代以来)以及卫星观测(1979年以来),以及地基和卫星观测仪器的更新换代。这些都会对大气再分析产品造成不均一性误差。因此,有关再分析能否用于气候变化研究的争议不断,也催生了稀疏输入再分析,比如20世纪再分析。为了降低观测系统演变的影响,稀疏输入再分析仅同化气压等少量地面观测,可使再分析延伸至19世纪中期。全球大气再分析地表分析产品是应用最为广泛的数据,但现有全球大气再分析系统在进行地表分析时差异显著。欧洲中期天气预报中心和日本气象厅再分析同化了地面站气温和湿度观测,后者进一步同化了陆面风速观测,美国的再分析系列都没有同化地面气温、湿度和风速观测,这使得美国的再分析与地面观测相比,一致性更低,而欧洲和日本再分析一致性更高。现在所有全球大气再分析都没有包含陆面地表覆盖和土地利用以及植被生长的年际变化,限制了其对地表变量的估计精度。本文梳理了欧洲、美国、日本和中国全球大气再分析的历史演进以及它们的地表分析产品在中国的适用性。

    Abstract:

    The concept of reanalysis can be tracked back to synoptic analysis in the era of manual weather forecasting,in the era of numerical weather forecasting the data assimilation methods were used to provide initial conditions for numerical weather prediction models.However,due to the rapid updating of assimilation methods and numerical weather prediction models,the application of these data in climate research is limited.Therefore,the concept of reanalysis was proposed,whose core is to use fixed assimilation methods and fixed numerical models to reanalyze historical data.It interpolates the observed data based on physical model,and can provide estimates of unobserved variables,which solves the problem of sparse and irregularly distributed observation stations.In order to improve accuracy,the major global atmospheric reanalyses assimilate as much observational data as possible,that is,all input atmospheric reanalyses.Although the numerical models and assimilation methods are fixed,the observation system has been evolving,with major changes including modern sounding observations since the 1950s and satellite observations since 1979,as well as the upgrading of ground-based and satellite observation instruments.All of these have introduced inhomogeneity into global atmospheric reanalysis products.Therefore,there has been ongoing controversy over whether global atmospheric reanalysis can be applied to climate change research,which has also given rise to the sparse input reanalysis,such as 20th century reanalysis.In order to reduce the impact of observation system evolution,this type of reanalysis only assimilated a small amount of ground observations such as atmospheric pressure,which extended reanalysis to the mid-19th century.
    For global atmospheric reanalysis,atmospheric sounding observations are much more important than surface observations.Early data assimilation was mainly based on the simplest optimal interpolation method,assimilating the satellite retrievals of atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles.However,the vertical resolution of satellite observations was too low,and the effects of assimilation were low or negative.This is because optimal interpolation is based on linear theory and cannot handle and analyze observations related to variables in a nonlinear manner.The variational method allows for direct assimilation of satellite radiance observations,significantly improving the value of satellite observations.But the types of observations that can be assimilated are limited to variables that can be accurately simulated.In the late 1990s,a rapid radiative transfer model was developed to accurately simulate microwave brightness temperature observations under cloudy conditions,achieving full sky assimilation of microwave radiation.But only recently attempts have been made to assimilate key but discontinuous observation parameters,and only one global reanalysis has achieved assimilation of satellite aerosol optical depth.But so far,there is no global atmospheric reanalysis that can truly assimilate precipitation observations.
    Global atmospheric reanalysis surface analysis products may be the most widely used data.In order to improve the accuracy and spatiotemporal resolution of land surface analysis,many global atmospheric reanalysis systems also perform offline land surface analysis.In general,these land surface reanalysis use multi-source merged precipitation data to correct the precipitation products of the atmospheric reanalysis system,because the precipitation simulated by atmospheric models still has significant errors.But ERA5 Land did not perform such correction,likely because such correction affects the real-time performance of the product,as merged precipitation products are generally delayed by more than a month.
    However,the existing global atmospheric reanalysis systems exhibit significant differences in the surface analysis.The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and Japanese Meteorological Agency reanalyzed and assimilated the observed surface air temperature and humidity observations collected at weather stations over global land,with the latter further assimilating land surface wind speed observations.The reanalysis series done by the United States agencies (i.e.,the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)) did not assimilate surface temperature,humidity,and wind speed observations collected by weather stations over global land.This results in lower consistency between reanalysis produced by the United States agencies and ground-based observations,while reanalysis produced by Europe and Japan agencies has higher consistency,making their applications more widespread.But until now all global atmospheric reanalysis have not included interannual variations in land cover,land use,and vegetation growth yet,which limits its accuracy in estimating surface variables.This article reviews the historical evolution of global atmospheric reanalysis done by Europe,the United States,Japan,and China,as well as the applicability of their surface analysis products in China.

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引用本文

王开存,2025.全球大气再分析及其在中国的适用性[J].大气科学学报,48(4):529-555.
WANG Kaicun,2025. Global atmospheric reanalyses and their applicability in China[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,48(4):529-555. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20250317007

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-17
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-11
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