2022年8月南海典型空心台风“木兰”的诊断分析及高分辨率模拟
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(42088101;42375030)


Diagnostic analysis and high-resolution simulation of the typical hollow typhoon “Mulan” in the South China Sea in August 2022
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    摘要:

    利用站点观测、FNL分析数据和融合降水等多源资料,对2022年8月南海空心台风“木兰”的特征及成因开展系统的诊断分析,结果表明“木兰”属于南海的季风低压发展而成的弱台风,具有季风低压的特征,整个台风过程无明显台风眼,前期气旋环流中有多个小环流。虽为弱台风,但其东北侧的低空东南急流配合南海充沛的水汽输送,以及陆地局部的强对流活动,造成了我国广东、广西和云南南部等地的大风和暴雨天气。使用中尺度模式WRF开展分辨率为9 km和3 km的嵌套模拟,结果显示模式能合理再现“木兰”的环流结构特征和演变过程,但模拟的副热带高压南侧季风槽偏强,风速偏大。模式模拟的台风路径与观测整体上较为吻合,与FNL分析资料的结果相比,WRF对降水量的模拟有显著改进,此外,WRF模式分辨率的提高可降低模拟降水的误差。

    Abstract:

    A systematic diagnostic study was conducted to examine the characteristics and causes of the hollow typhoon “Mulan”,which formed in the South China Sea in August 2022.The study applied on-site observation precipitation data,global analysis data,and merged precipitation data from multiple sources.The results indicated that typhoon “Mulan”,originating from a monsoon depression in the South China Sea,exhibited typical features of depressions in the region.Satellite observations revealed that “Mulan” lacked typical typhoon characteristics,with no deep convection development near its center.Strong convection and rainstorms were primarily distributed in the typhoon’s periphery,with precipitation significantly higher there than near the center.In terms of atmospheric circulation,“Mulan” featured multiple smaller vortices within its early-stage cyclonic circulation,with strong winds mainly concentrated in the periphery.Therefore,typhoon “Mulan” exhibited characteristics of a hollow typhoon.Despite being weak,“Mulan” brought strong winds and heavy rainfall to regions of South China,including Guangdong,Guangxi,and southern Yunnan,due to a combination of factors including a northeastern low-level jet,ample water vaper supply from the South China Sea,and intense convective activity over land.The strong winds on the northeast side of the typhoon resulted from the convergence of the southwest monsoon from the South China Sea and the southeast monsoon from the northwest Pacific Ocean.Blocked by the zonal subtropical high over the mid-latitudes of the Asian continent,the typhoon’s direction of movement changed from northwest to westward as it approached land,following an inverted parabolic path shape.Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model,a retrospective simulation of 84 hours was conducted,employing the nesting of two domains with horizontal grid spacings of 9 and 3 km.The model reasonably reproduced the circulation structure and evolution process of "Mulan",although with some discrepancies,particularly in the simulated monsoon trough and typhoon track.Comparison with Final Operational Global Analysis (FNL) data showed significant improvement in precipitation simulation with the WRF model,particularly at higher resolution.This study contributes to understanding the formation and characteristics of hollow typhoons in the South China Sea and highlight the potential of mesoscale models for enhancing typhoon simulation and forecasting.Future research will focus on the cloud microphysical characteristics of “Mulan” and evaluate different parameterization schemes of the WRF model to enhance the forecasting ability for weak typhoons with heavy precipitation.

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王静瑶,于恩涛,马洁华,汪君,陈冬,陈科艺,2024.2022年8月南海典型空心台风“木兰”的诊断分析及高分辨率模拟[J].大气科学学报,47(2):346-359. WANG Jingyao, YU Entao, MA Jiehua, WANG Jun, CHEN Dong, CHEN Keyi,2024. Diagnostic analysis and high-resolution simulation of the typical hollow typhoon “Mulan” in the South China Sea in August 2022[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,47(2):346-359. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20240314001

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-14
  • 最后修改日期:2024-03-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-05-22
  • 出版日期: 2024-03-28

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