CMIP6HighResMIP对青藏高原气候模拟的评估和预估
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

中国科学院“西部之光”项目(xbzg-zdsys-202102);国家自然科学基金资助项目(42075091);青藏高原第二次科学考察项目(2019QZKK010203);国家自然科学基金资助项目(42275027)


Evaluation and projection of CMIP6 HighResMIP in simulating surface air temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    高分辨率模式模拟被认为是研究资料相对欠缺的青藏高原地区气候变化的重要方法之一。第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)新增了高分辨率模式比较计划(HighResMIP),但其对青藏高原气候的模拟性能尚未系统评估。本研究分析了6对(更高、较低分辨率)CMIP6 HighResMIP模式对青藏高原当前气候的模拟能力,并集合预估了近期青藏高原气候的变化趋势。相对较粗分辨率模拟,所有(2/3)模式的更高分辨率模拟减少了平均降水(气温)的区域平均偏差。泰勒图涉及指标的综合评估显示,约1/3模式的更高分辨率对平均气温和降水模拟效果优于较低分辨率,其余模式的更高分辨率则接近或者劣于较低分辨率。集合平均结果优于单个模式,且其更高分辨率模拟效果总体优于较低分辨率。更高分辨率模式集合预估显示,相对于1995—2014年,在SSP5-8.5情景下到2021—2040年青藏高原整体呈增温趋势,东南部增温相对较弱;降水从北到南呈增加-减少-增加的变化模态;青藏高原气温将平均增加(0.81±;0.91) ℃,降水将平均增加(0.05±;0.25) mm/d。

    Abstract:

    High-resolution model simulation is considered one of the important methods for studying climate change over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is characterized with scarce observations. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) has been added to the Sixth International Coupled Model Comparison Program (CMIP6), but its simulation performance has not been systematically evaluated over the TP. In this study, we evaluate the ability of CMIP6 HighResMIP models to simulate historical climate over the TP and perform an ensemble projection of the TP climate trend in the near future. The results show that, when compared to lower-resolution simulations, higher-resolution simulations of almost all (two-thirds) models reduce the area-mean bias of annual mean precipitation (surface air temperature). A combined assessment of the Taylor diagram involving indices shows that higher-resolution simulations of about one-third of the models outperform their lower-resolution simulations for both annual mean surface air temperature and precipitation, while higher-resolution simulations of the rest of the models are close to or inferior to their lower-resolution simulations. Multi-model ensemble results outperform individual model results, and their higher-resolution simulation generally outperforms the lower-resolution simulation. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, an ensemble of higher-resolution models projects significant warming over the TP during 2021—2040 compared to 1995—2014, with relatively weak warming in the southeastern part. Projected precipitation shows an increasing-decreasing-increasing pattern from north to south. The annual mean surface air temperature will increase by (0.81± 0.91) ℃ and precipitation will increase by (0.05± 0.25) mm/d on average over the TP. These findings are useful for understanding the impact of improved model resolution on climate simulation performance over the TP and the evolution of the TP's climate in a warming future world.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

杨珂珂,郭东林,华维,马迪,辛羽婷,2023. CMIP6HighResMIP对青藏高原气候模拟的评估和预估[J].大气科学学报,46(2):193-204.
YANG Keke, GUO Donglin, HUA Wei, MA Di, XIN Yuting,2023. Evaluation and projection of CMIP6 HighResMIP in simulating surface air temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,46(2):193-204. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20220808001

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-08-08
  • 最后修改日期:2022-09-24
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-04-19
  • 出版日期: 2023-03-28

地址:江苏南京宁六路219号南京信息工程大学    邮编:210044

联系电话:025-58731158    E-mail:xbbjb@nuist.edu.cn    

大气科学学报 ® 2026 版权所有  技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司