CMIP5模式对太阳活动准11年周期激发类拉尼娜型海温的评估
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(41975107)、国家重点研发计划“工业革命以来年代际气候变化的全球格局及归因”项目(2016YFA0600402)


Influence of the 11-year solar cycle on tropical Pacific SST anomalies in CMIP5 simulations
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    利用24个第五次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)历史试验资料,本文评估了在太阳年代际尺度准11 a周期变化下能否激发出热带太平洋显著的类拉尼娜型海表温度异常的模拟能力。再分析资料分析结果表明,“自下而上”机制解释了在太阳强迫偏强的年份,热带太平洋更容易呈现出显著的类拉尼娜型海温异常。CMIP5模式的评估结果显示,有2/5的模式可以基本再现再分析资料中太阳强迫影响下的热带东太平洋海温负异常,这些模式分为类拉尼娜组;而另有3/5的模式模拟出了相反的信号,分为类厄尔尼诺组。为了进一步探讨CMIP5模式模拟能力不同的原因,本文分析了“自下而上”机制在模式中的表现。“自下而上”机制可分为蒸发过程和海洋恒温(thermostat)过程。结果表明,模式能否模拟出类拉尼娜型海温响应取决于thermostat过程的强弱,其中类拉尼娜组的thermostat过程更强;而蒸发过程没有起到关键作用。

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    Solar forcing has an important impact on the formation and evolution of the Earth's climate.Under the influence of quasi-11-year solar cycle,the global climate changes with heterogeneity.The details of the response of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) to solar 11-year variability and how it amplifies this response are important matters of discussion.Sunspot numbers (SSN) are used to represent the intensity of solar forcing.When the SSN increases,then the solar forcing strengthens.Positive and negative Niño3 indices are used to characterize the El Niño-like and La Niña-like SSTs.Bootstrap methods are used to verify the statistical significance of each signal.Next,based on the historical experiment from 24 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5),this paper evaluates the ability of models to simulate the observed significant La Niña-like SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific,which is stimulated by quasi-11-year solar cycle.By analyzing the reanalysis data,the “bottom-up” mechanism explains that the significant La Niña-like SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific are likelier to occur in years with high solar activity.The results illustrate that two fifths of the CMIP5 models can effectively demonstrate the negative SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific during the high solar forcing,which are segmented into the La Niña-like group.Meanwhile,another three fifths of the models can even simulate the opposite signal,which are known as the El Niño-like group.In order to explore the different simulation capabilities of the CMIP5 models,this paper analyzes the “bottom-up” mechanism in the model.The “bottom-up” mechanism is divided into two processes:evaporation process and thermostat process.The results show that whether or not the models can simulate the La Niña-like SST response depends on the strength of the thermostat process,and the thermostat process in La Niña-like group is stronger.However,it is observed that the evaporation process is not a key factor.

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罗无边,刘飞,陶丽,2022. CMIP5模式对太阳活动准11年周期激发类拉尼娜型海温的评估[J].大气科学学报,45(4):552-561. LUO Wubian, LIU Fei, TAO Li,2022. Influence of the 11-year solar cycle on tropical Pacific SST anomalies in CMIP5 simulations[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,45(4):552-561. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20191230001

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2019-12-30
  • 最后修改日期:2020-04-11
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-28
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