气候变化对跨部门和区域关键风险研究新认知:IPCC AR6 WGⅡ解读
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(42071024;42105158;42005126);南京信息工程大学人才启动经费


Most recent understanding of key risks across sectors and regions of climate change: interpreting IPCC AR6 WGⅡ
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    摘要:

    IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第二工作组报告(WGⅡ)中“跨部门和区域关键风险”章节评估了观测到的气候变化影响、与适应相关的响应、适应限制以及跨部门和区域的关键风险。相较于第五次评估报告,AR6 WGⅡ报告提供了更多气候变化影响的有力证据,强调了适应对降低风险的作用,提供更多证据区分了适应的软、硬限制,提出了剩余风险概念并将其纳入风险评估框架中,更新了关切理由相关的风险对气候变化水平的依赖性。AR6 WGⅡ报告指出气候变化已在自然、人类和管理系统中造成了广泛影响(极高信度),生态系统的响应可能无法或不足以适应气候变化的速度,人类系统的适应措施在降低气候风险上的有效性或充分性有限,不良适应正在增多(高信度)。适应限制被分为软限制和硬限制。共识别了127个关键风险,它们可通过级联效应传导,导致21世纪内跨部门和区域八个典型关键风险在某种程度被放大。典型关键风险使实现可持续发展目标的挑战增加(高信度)。更多的证据支持五大关切理由,无适应或适应性低的情况下,全球变暖将使五个关切理由的风险等级增加至高和非常高水平(高信度)。

    Abstract:

    The chapter of Working Group Ⅱ Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6 WGⅡ) entitled,“Key Risks Across Sectors and Regions”,synthesizes observed climate change impacts,adaptation-related responses,limits to adaptation,and the key risks identified across sectors and regions.Compared to AR5,AR6 WGⅡ provides additional and stronger evidence for impacts of climate change;emphasizes the effect of adaptation to reducing risk;differentiates soft and hard limits to adaptation;raises the concept of residual risk in the conceptual framework of risk evaluation;and updates the dependence of risk associated with the Reasons for Concern on the level of climate change.The impacts of changes in climate-related systems have been identified in a wide range of natural,human,and managed systems (very high confidence).The responses in ecosystems may not be adaptive enough or sufficient to cope with the rate of climate changes (high confidence).There is negligible evidence that adaptation in human systems is adequate to reduce climate risk (high confidence).Maladaptation is increasing (high confidence).Limits to adaptation stem from interactions between soft and hard limits (high confidence).The report of AR6 WGⅡ identified 127 Key Risks and risk cascades,which will enhance eight Representative Key Risks across sectors and regions to a certain extent.Representative Key Risks increase the challenges in achieving global sustainability goals (high confidence).Increasing evidence now supports the five major Reasons for Concern regarding climate change.Assuming low to no adaptation,risks for all five Reasons for Concern increase to high and very high levels under global warming (high confidence).

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高妙妮,翟建青,陈梓延,林齐根,黄金龙,刘述慈,姜彤,2022.气候变化对跨部门和区域关键风险研究新认知:IPCC AR6 WGⅡ解读[J].大气科学学报,45(4):530-538. GAO Miaoni, ZHAI Jianqing, CHEN Ziyan, LIN Qigen, HUANG Jinlong, LIU Shuci, JIANG Tong,2022. Most recent understanding of key risks across sectors and regions of climate change: interpreting IPCC AR6 WGⅡ[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,45(4):530-538. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20220518011

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  • 收稿日期:2022-05-18
  • 最后修改日期:2022-06-01
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-28
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