台风“利奇马”远距离暴雨的关键动力因子和水汽来源分析
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1.中国气象局交通气象重点实验室;2.南京气象科技创新研究院;3.中国气象科学研究院人工智能气象应用研究所

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江苏省气象学会青年科研基金项目(KQ202006);国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3000901);国家自然基金面上项目(42175007)


Analysis of key dynamical factors and sources of water vapor influencing the remote heavy rainfall produced by Typhoon Lekima
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1.Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological Administration;2.Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences;3.Institute of Artificial Intelligence for Meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

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    摘要:

    基于地面加密观测、ERA5再分析、ECMWF全球集合预报等多源观测资料,利用敏感性分析方法、涡度收支诊断方法以及拉格朗日水汽追踪方法,探讨1909号台风“利奇马”造成远距离暴雨的关键动力因子和水汽来源。结果表明,对流层低层短波槽的加深有利于台风远距离降水(TRP)区北侧的北风增强,同时TRP区域和台风“利奇马”之间的低层偏南气流增强,共同增强TRP区域内的低层相对涡度,有利于TRP增强。相对涡度的散度项是影响TRP增强或减弱的关键作用项。在TRP增强阶段,有利于暴雨增强的正涡度主要由散度项贡献;负的散度项贡献导致相对涡度减小,TRP雨强也随即减弱。TRP雨强和区域内的水汽含量密切相关。500 hPa上TRP区域内的水汽由局地和台风“利奇马”共同贡献,700 hPa的水汽主要由“利奇马”台风贡献,850 hPa的水汽由局地和两个台风共同输送,其中台风“罗莎”的贡献略大一些。

    Abstract:

    The key dynamic forcing factors and sources of water vapor influencing the remote heavy rainfall over North China produced by Typhoon Lekima on 10 August 2019 are investigated using the surface rain gauge data, ERA5 reanalysis data, and ECWMF ensemble forecasts data. Ensemble sensitivity analysis shows that low-level relative vorticity over the remote typhoon precipitation (TRP) area is the most significant dynamic factor facilitating TRP. The stronger low-level relative vorticity is closely associated with the enhancement of northerly winds in the north caused by the deepening of the low-level short-wave trough and jointly related to the strengthening low-level southerly winds between the TRP and typhoon precipitation (TP) area. The divergence term of relative vorticity is the crucial dynamic process that dominates the strengthening and weakening period of TRP. During the TRP enhancement phase, the positive vorticity is mainly contributed by the positive divergence term, while the negative divergence term leads to the decrease of relative vorticity and the weakening of TRP intensity. The water vapor in the TRP region at 500 hPa is mainly contributed by local area and Typhoon Lekima, while 60% of the water vapor at 700 hPa is contributed by Typhoon Lekima. 40% of the water vapor at 850 hPa is contributed by Typhoon Rosa, and the remaining 60% of water vapor is transported from Typhoon Lekima and the local area.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-04-06
  • 最后修改日期:2022-04-26
  • 录用日期:2022-06-22
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-06-22
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