气候变化与海洋生态系统:影响、适应和脆弱性——IPCC AR6 WGⅡ报告之解读
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国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0604904;2017YFA0604902)


Climate change and marine ecosystems: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability
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    摘要:

    IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第二工作组报告第三章开展了气候变化对海洋的影响和风险,以及生态系统及其服务功能、脆弱性和适应评估。AR6明确指出,人为气候变化已经并将继续显著地改变全球和区域海洋的气候影响驱动因子,包括海温升高、海平面上升、海洋酸化和缺氧,以及营养盐浓度变化等海洋物理和化学因子。例如,20世纪80年代以来全球海洋热浪发生的频率已增加了1倍,到21世纪末期可能增加4~8倍。气候影响驱动因子的变化已经对海洋和海岸带生态系统造成了广泛而深远的影响:1)海洋变暖使得海洋物种自1950年代以来以(59.2±15.5) km/(10 a)的速率向极地方向迁移,导致热带海域生物量减少,中纬度海区热带化,极地和亚极地海区浮游植物生长期提前;2)频繁发生的海洋热浪事件已经接近甚至超过了某些海洋生物的耐受极限或其气候临界点,如暖水珊瑚的大规模白化、死亡,海草和大型海藻的大面积消失;3)海洋变暖、缺氧和酸化使得河口区生物群落结构改变,赤潮等有害藻华事件频发,近海和大洋浮游植物生物量和初级生产力下降;4)海平面上升导致海岸带红树林、盐沼和海草床等生态系统的退化;5)未来全球海洋生态系统面临的风险将不断加剧,尤其是在热带和北冰洋海区。其中,当全球升温1.5℃时(最快到21世纪40年代,SSP5-8.5情景),暖水珊瑚礁预计将减少70%~90%;当升温2℃时,几乎所有的(>99%)暖水珊瑚礁将会消失。目前人类社会采取的一些措施(如建立海洋保护区和红树林生态修复)已越来越不能应对日益增长的气候风险,迫切需要发展变革性的行动措施,推动海洋生态系统恢复力的发展,并需尽快采取强有力的减排措施以减缓全球变暖的影响。

    Abstract:

    In this report,the IPCC Working Group Ⅱ's contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report Chapter 3 presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on the ocean and coastal ecosystems,along with their vulnerability and the potential adaptation solutions.This report clarifies the fact that the anthropogenic greenhouse gases have and will continue to cause fundamental changes to the physical and chemical properties of our centrally important oceans,including warming,sea level rise (SLR),acidification,deoxygenation,and change in nutrients.The occurrences of the marine heatwaves have doubled since the 1980s,and will become 4-8 times more frequent in 2081—2100 compared to 1995—2014.In addition,ocean warming since the 1950s has shifted marine species poleward,at an average of 59.2±15.5 km per decade.This has resulted in reduced biomass in tropical waters,a remarkable tropicalization of mid-latitude ocean,and an earlier phytoplankton growth period in polar and sub-polar areas.Marine heatwaves are exposing species,and ecosystems approach or even exceed their tolerance,causing mass coral bleaching and mortality,and loss of seagrasses and kelp forests.Warming,acidification and hypoxia have collectively resulted in changes in the community structure and increases in the occurrence of harmful algal blooms in estuaries,and have contributed to an overall decline in phytoplankton biomass and primary production.In the meantime,phytoplankton biomass in the polar ocean will increase.Accelerating SLR has led to the degradation of coastal wetland ecosystems (e.g.,mangroves,saltmarshes and seagrass beds).Ocean conditions are projected to continue and increase risk of regional extirpations and global extinctions of marine species,especially near the Equator and in the Arctic.Coral reefs are projected to decline by a further 70%—90% at 1.5 ℃ warming with greater losses (>99%) at 2 ℃,as early as the 2040s under SSP5-8.5.The current available adaptation options (e.g.,marine protected areas and mangrove restoration) are unable to offset the growing climate-change risk,thus exemplifying the need for transformative climate adaptation and ambitious mitigation measures.

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谭红建,蔡榕硕,杜建国,胡文佳,2022.气候变化与海洋生态系统:影响、适应和脆弱性——IPCC AR6 WGⅡ报告之解读[J].大气科学学报,45(4):489-501. TAN Hongjian, CAI Rongshuo, DU Jianguo, HU Wenjia,2022. Climate change and marine ecosystems: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,45(4):489-501. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20220411001

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  • 收稿日期:2022-04-11
  • 最后修改日期:2022-05-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-28
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