IPCC AR6粮食系统的影响与适应的新认知和新趋势
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国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFA0607403);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41961124007;51879277;41675115);中国农业科学院创新人才项目


New perceptions and trends in impacts and adaptations of food systems in IPCC AR6
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    摘要:

    解读政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第六次评估报告(AR6)粮食系统的影响与适应,对科学认识国际气候变化对农业影响学科前沿动态具有重要意义。最新发布的IPCC AR6在深化阐述粮食生产能力、种植布局、病虫害影响的基础上,高度确信人类活动导致的气候变暖对粮食系统产生了负面影响,论述了粮食运输及消费中的气候风险,解析了粮食生产-存储-运输-消费的全链条气候变化影响,延展了影响评估归因内容并丰富了农业环境影响等相关科学认识。对于粮食系统的适应能力,强调适应及减缓协同发展的气候恢复力发展路径,适应评估从适应能力、适应方式等理论逐步转向适应实施行动和成效评估,并注重适应行动的区域特异性和有效性。本次评估强调了气候变化对作物影响的检测和归因、关注了气候和农业环境变化复合影响、倡导基于生态系统的适应方案和技术,评估了现有适应技术的可行性和成效。报告内容对中国强化农业影响评估能力及把握国际学科动态具有参考价值。

    Abstract:

    Interpreting the impacts and adaptations of food systems in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II (WGII) is important for the scientific understanding of the frontiers of the international discipline of climate change impacts on agriculture.The newly released IPCC AR6,on the basis of further elaboration of food production capacity,planting layout,pest and disease impacts,further confirms the negative impacts of anthropogenic warming on food systems,discusses climate risks in food processing,transportation and consumption,extends the review of food impacts in complex ecosystems,and expands the analysis of climate change impacts on the entire chain of food production-processing-transportation-consumption.It extends the attribution of impacts and enriches the scientific understanding of agro-environmental impacts.As for the adaptation capacity of food systems,it emphasizes the development pathway of climate resilience based on the synergy of adaptation and mitigation,the adaptation assessment has gradually shifted from the theoretical aspects of adaptation capacity and adaptation methods to the assessment of adaptation implementation and effectiveness,and the regional specificity and effectiveness of adaptation actions are identified.This assessment emphasizes the detection and attribution of climate change impacts on crops,focuses on the impacts of climate and agro-environmental change,introduces ecosystem-based adaptation schemes and technologies,and assesses the feasibility and effectiveness of existing adaptation technologies.The contents of the report are important references for China to strengthen its capacity in agricultural impact assessment and to catch the international dynamics of the discipline.

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居辉,袁佳双,张馨月,刘忠伟,王建东,2022. IPCC AR6粮食系统的影响与适应的新认知和新趋势[J].大气科学学报,45(4):481-488. JU Hui, YUAN Jiashuang, ZHANG Xinyue, LIU Zhongwei, WANG Jiandong,2022. New perceptions and trends in impacts and adaptations of food systems in IPCC AR6[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,45(4):481-488. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20220330007

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  • 收稿日期:2022-03-30
  • 最后修改日期:2022-05-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-28
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