CMA-GEPS对中国超强梅雨天气过程的预报能力分析
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作者单位:

1.中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心;2.美国国家海洋和大气管理局/国家气象局/国家环境预报中心/环境模式中心,美国马里兰州;3.国家气象中心(中央气象台)

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基金项目:

中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心青年基金(400441)、国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41906022)


Analysis of CMA-GEPS prediction capability for the extreme Meiyu process over China
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of China Meteorological Administration CMA;2.National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA/National Weather Service NWS/National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP/Environmental Modeling CenterEMC,College Park,Maryland,USA;3.Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of China Meteorological Administration (CMA);4.China Meteorological Administration National Meteorological Center

Fund Project:

the Youth Fund of Numerical Weather Prediction Center of CMA (Grant 400441), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41906022)

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    摘要:

    基于中国气象局自主研发的全球集合预报系统CMA-GEPS,针对2020年6月-7月的长江中下游地区超强梅雨天气过程,开展了中国梅汛期强降水的预报能力分析。结果表明,西太副高的稳定维持及夏季风的持续增强为梅汛期强降水的发生提供了有利的动力和水汽条件。CMA-GEPS对西太副高各指数的快速调整趋势预报,可提前7-10天在预报中呈现;对西太副高强度和面积预报技巧与NCEP集合预报相当,表现为偏弱的估计,脊线和西伸脊点预报技巧与ECMWF集合预报相当,表现为脊线位置偏南,西伸脊点偏东的偏差。CMA-GEPS对东亚夏季风指数预报技巧在9天以上,较控制预报提前2天。CMA-GEPS的控制预报存在强度偏弱,雨带位置偏南的系统性偏差,和漏报现象;基于空间和时间权重修正的邻域方案TSWP,明显提高了大雨预报的技巧,减少了漏报的发生,优于控制预报和传统的单点概率预报,从而表明,TSWP方案对梅汛期大雨过程的预报是有效且合理的。

    Abstract:

    Based on the Global Ensemble Prediction System in China Meteorological Administration (CMA-GEPS), the extreme Meiyu process over China in 2020 was evaluated. Results show that, during the Meiyu season, a strong and stable western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and a gradually strengthened East Asian summer monsoon provide favorable dynamic and moisture conditions for strong rainfall. For the western Pacific subtropical high, CMA-GEPS could skillfully forecast the evolution trend of WPSH index with 7-9 leading days; the CMA-GEPS prediction skills of WPSH strength and area are about the same level as the results from the NCEP ensemble prediction system, and the WPSH strength presents the weaker bias compared with the observation; the prediction skills of ridge line and western boundary index with CMA-GEPS are comparable with the results from ECMWF ensemble prediction system, and the forecasting bias is mainly attributed to the more southward location of ridge line and more eastward center position of western boundary. For the East Asian summer monsoon, CMA-GEPS could skillfully predict the index with 9 leading days, which was two days earlier than the control forecast. The CMA-GEPS control forecasting bias is mainly attributed to the weaker precipitation intensity and more southward location of strong rainfall belt, and also the control forecasting fails to predict the heavy rain in some regions in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river. With the time-spatial weight probability (TSWP) neighborhood scheme, the prediction skills related to the heavy rain with CMA-GEPS are improved obviously, and the scheme reduced the occurrence of precipitation missing report. The results of precipitation probability prediction were verified by observation and Brier Scores, which show that: the TSWP neighborhood scheme is superior to the original single point ensemble probability forecast method and the control forecast, and also has a well application values for the heavy storm prediction in the Meiyu period.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-03-06
  • 最后修改日期:2022-05-31
  • 录用日期:2022-09-29
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-12-06
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