不同情景达到碳中和下中国区域气候变化的预估
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603804)


Projection of climate change in China under carbon neutral scenarios
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    利用第6次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中的9个全球气候模式的模拟结果,通过CO2浓度达峰时间确定SSP1-1.9和SSP1-2.6两种情景下的全球碳中和时间,预估了全球碳中和下中国区域气候较历史参考期(1995—2014年)的未来变化,分析不同时间达到碳中和下气候响应差异,并与未实现碳中和的SSP2-4.5情景下的气候变化对比。结果表明,SSP1-1.9和SSP1-2.6情景下全球达到碳中和的时间分别为2041年和2063年,相较于历史参考期,SSP1-1.9/SSP1-2.6下中国区域平均年气温上升1.22/1.58℃,平均年降水量增加7.1%/9.9%。SSP1-2.6(晚碳中和)较SSP1-1.9(早碳中和)情景下年均温增高约0.36℃,最大升温区位于西南及高原地区。对降水而言,晚碳中和较早碳中和全国平均年降水量增加约2.7%。全年及夏季降水量显著增加区主要在西北,新疆地区出现降水增加超过8%的大值区,冬季则集中于黄河中下游,增幅也超过8%。未碳中和的SSP2-4.5情景下中国区域的升温显著强于SSP1-2.6(碳中和)情景,年平均气温高约0.61℃,西北地区是升温差别大值区,其中新疆部分地区增加升温超过0.8℃。SSP2-4.5较SSP1-2.6情景年降水量在西北地区增加显著,内蒙古西北部最大增加超过10%。有无碳中和对冬季降水影响更大,SSP2-4.5情景下新疆部分地区降水增加比SSP1-2.6下多20%左右,云南部分地区则少15%左右,表明有无碳中和对气候的影响远大于早晚碳中和。

    Abstract:

    This paper presents projections of regional climate change over China under carbon neutrality against the historical reference period (1995-2014), based on an ensemble of nine model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).The time of carbon neutrality globally is determined by the time of peak CO2 concentration under two scenarios, namely SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6.The results are compared with what produced by the SSP2-4.5 scenario, in which carbon neutrality cannot be achieved.The respective times to reach carbon neutrality under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios are 2041 and 2063.Compared with the reference period, the areal-mean annual temperature in China increases by 1.22/1.58℃ under the SSP1-1.9/SSP1-2.6 scenarios, and the areal-mean annual precipitation increases by 7.1%/9.9%.The areal-mean annual temperature increases by 0.36℃ under the SSP1-2.6 (late carbon neutrality) in comparison to the SSP1-1.9 (early carbon neutrality), with the strongest warming located in southwestern China and on the Tibet Plateau.For precipitation, the areal-mean annual precipitation increases by 2.7% in the later carbon neutral period compared to the earlier carbon neutral period.The annual and summer precipitations increase significantly in northwestern China, with an increase greater than 8% occurring in Xinjiang.In winter, the region that has an increase of precipitation above 8% is located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.The warming under the SSP2-4.5 scenario is significantly stronger than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, with the regional mean temperature being about 0.61℃ higher.The largest warming is located in northwestern China, with an increase of greater than 0.8℃ in some parts of Xinjiang.The annual precipitation increases more significantly in northwestern China under the SSP2-4.5 scenario than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, with a maximum increase of above 10% in northwestern Inner Mongolia.The winter precipitation increases by more than 20% in some areas of Xinjiang, and decreases by more than 15% in Yunnan.The results of this study show that the presence or absence of carbon neutrality has a much greater impact on climate than the time (early or late) of carbon neutrality.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

邓荔,朱欢欢,江志红,2022.不同情景达到碳中和下中国区域气候变化的预估[J].大气科学学报,45(3):364-375. DENG Li, ZHU Huanhuan, JIANG Zhihong,2022. Projection of climate change in China under carbon neutral scenarios[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,45(3):364-375. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20220323015

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-03-23
  • 最后修改日期:2022-03-31
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-02
  • 出版日期:

地址:江苏南京宁六路219号南京信息工程大学    邮编:210044

联系电话:025-58731158    E-mail:xbbjb@nuist.edu.cn    QQ交流群号:344646895

大气科学学报 ® 2024 版权所有  技术支持:北京勤云科技发展有限公司