Based on the sea surface temperature (SST) data from NOAA in USA, the asymmetric characteristics of interannual relationship between ENSO and Victoria mode (VM;EOF2 of North Pacific SST anomalies in winter (DJF)) were emphatically analyzed.Results show that the correlation between VM and ENSO is weak on the decadal scale, but strong on the interannual scale.VM has significant negative correlation with ENSO in the same year, and has strong positive correlation with ENSO in the following year.However, there is a certain asymmetry in the relationship between the positive/negative VM events and ENSO warm/cold phases on the interannual scale.The relationship between the positive VM events and the SST anomalies in the tropical central and eastern Pacific in the same winter is weak, but El Niño events often occur in the following year.In contrast, the negative VM events are usually accompanied by El Niño events in the same years, but there is no significant relationship between the negative VM events and the SST anomalies in the tropical central and eastern Pacific in the following winter and there are few ENSO events.It can be seen that the positive VM event seems to promote the occurrence and development of El Niño in the next year and can be used as one of the early prediction factors of ENSO, while the negative VM event cannot be used as the early prediction factor of ENSO.
祁莉,毛欣,张文君,2022.北太平洋海温Victoria模态与ENSO年际关系的非对称特征[J].大气科学学报,45(2):280-291. QI Li, MAO Xin, ZHANG Wenjun,2022. Asymmetric characteristics of interannual relationship between Victoria mode of North Pacific SST and ENSO[J]. Trans Atmos Sci,45(2):280-291. DOI:10.13878/j. cnki. dqkxxb.20200719017复制
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