增暖背景下东亚夏季风区降水演变的空间模态及其形成机制
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(41776017);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600504)


Spatial patterns of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall under warming climate
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    摘要:

    基于CMIP5中全新世(Mid-Holocene,6 ka BP)试验及RCP8.5试验的对比,本文研究了不同增暖情景下东亚夏季风区降水演变的空间模态及其成因。结果表明,两种增暖情景下东亚夏季风区降水演变的空间模态存在显著差异。轨道辐射主导的中全新世暖期期间,东亚夏季风区降水演变的空间模态为经向“三极子”结构;而大气CO2主导的未来强增暖下则为整体性增多模态。水汽收支平衡分解的分析表明,东亚夏季风区降水变化的动力部分由季风环流主导,表现为经向“三极子”结构,而其热动力部分取决于气温主导的大气比湿,表现为与气温变化相一致的空间分布。东亚夏季风区降水的变化在中全新世暖期以动力响应为主,而在未来强增暖下则以热动力响应为主。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, based on the comparison between Mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) experiment and the RCP8.5 experiment performed in CMIP5, the spatial pattern and causes of rainfall evolution in the East Asian summer monsoon region under different warming scenarios are studied.The study results show that there are significant differences in the spatial patterns of rainfall evolution in the East Asian summer monsoon against the two warming backgrounds.During the mid-Holocene warm period dominated by the enhancement of summer orbital radiation, the pattern of rainfall evolution in the East Asian summer monsoon region bore a meridional “tripole” structure.However, the future strong warming dominated by the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration was dominated by the overall increasing pattern.In addition, the moisture budget decomposition of water vapor shows that the dynamic component of the rainfall change in the East Asian summer monsoon was dominated by the monsoon circulation, which is represented by the meridional “tripole” structure, while its thermodynamic component depends on the atmospheric specific humidity dominated by the temperature, which is represented as a spatial distribution consistent with the temperature change.The change of rainfall in the East Asian summer monsoon region was dominated by the change of dynamic component during the warm period of the Mid-Holocene, but later it was dominated by the change of thermodynamic component under strong warming.

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程军,顾鹏,马依依.2022.增暖背景下东亚夏季风区降水演变的空间模态及其形成机制【J】大气科学学报.45.2:239.246

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  • 收稿日期:2020-06-01
  • 最后修改日期:2020-08-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-05-05
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