城市化和西太副高增强对中国复合热浪的协同作用
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1.①南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100020;3.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100029;4.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044

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The Synergy between Urbanization and the Western Pacific Subtropical High intensification on Compound Heat Waves in China
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1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education / Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change / Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2.LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;3.LASW, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

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    摘要:

    同时考虑了温度、湿度、风速和辐射等多种气象要素影响的复合热浪,对人类健康和生态多样性有重大影响。本文基于黑球湿球温度(WBGT)识别了中国复合热浪,并定量分析了城市化和西太平洋副热带高压(简称西太副高)对中国复合热浪的协同作用。结果表明,1979-2019年中国复合热浪的发生天数,强度和影响范围都在逐步上升,尤其在2010年以后出现跃升,比上世纪80年代增大了4倍左右。本文进一步发现城市化快速发展和西太副高增强协同加剧了中国复合热浪。较早发展的城市化对热浪天数、强度、范围增长的贡献分别是9.2%、12.5%、7.5%。而同期西太副高的增强对三类热浪指数有约30%的正贡献,甚至在考虑全球变暖对西太副高的加强作用时,西太副高的贡献增加到70%左右。以上结果表明,快速发展的城市化和全球变暖背景下增强的西太副高的协同作用可以解释80%以上21世纪初中国复合热浪的跃升。

    Abstract:

    Compound heat waves which consider the effect of temperature, humidity, wind speed and radiation simultaneously, have a major impact on human health and ecological diversity. Based on the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), this paper identifies the compound heat waves in China, and quantitatively analyzes the synergy between urbanization and the Western Pacific Subtropical High intensification on the compound heat waves in China. Results show that the total number of days, intensity and spatial coverage of China's compound heat waves increase gradually from 1979 to 2019, with a sharp increase after 2010 and the three indices for the compound heat waves in 2010 were approximately four times higher than that in the 1980s. It is also find that the synergy between the rapid development of urbanization and the intensification of the?Western?Pacific?Subtropical?High intensifies the compound heat waves in China. The early urbanization has contributed 9.2%, 12.5%, and 7.5% to the increase in the total number of days, intensity, and spatial coverage of the compound heat waves, respectively. During the same period, the Western?Pacific?Subtropical?High has a positive contribution of about 30% to the three heat wave indexes, and the contribution can be up to about 70% when the strengthening effect of global warming on the?Western?Pacific?Subtropical?High is considered. The above results suggest that the synergy between the rapid urbanization and the enhanced Western?Pacific?Subtropical?High under the background of global warming can explain more than 80% of the China's compound heat waves which have jumped sharply in 2010s.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-03-11
  • 最后修改日期:2021-05-06
  • 录用日期:2021-05-11
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