基于多源融合数据评估2014-2018年中国地表大气臭氧污染变化及其健康影响
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①南京信息工程大学 江苏省大气环境监测与污染控制高技术研究重点实验室/大气环境与装备技术协同创新中心/环境科学与工程学院

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Assessment of changes in surface ozone pollution and its health effects from 2014 to 2018 in China based on multi-source fusion data
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1.Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control,Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science Technology;2.China

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    摘要:

    基于我国环境空气质量监测站观测数据、区域空气质量模式(CMAQ)模拟数据和卫星反演数据,并利用数据融合方法获得了2014和2018年地表大气O3浓度水平变化及其空间分布,通过空气污染控制健康效益评估工具(BenMAP-CE)评估了2014年和2018年我国O3导致的过早死亡人数。结果表明,2018年我国O3日8小时最大浓度(O3-MDA8)年均值为45.75 ppb,较2014年的41.02 ppb增长了11.5%,其中安徽省、山西省和山东省的O3-MDA8浓度增加最为明显;2014年和2018年O3相关过早死亡人数分别为17.4万和26.7万,过早死亡人数增长率约为57%;我国9个区域中的中部区域O3浓度和相关过早死亡人数较其它几个区域增长最多,并且人口密度为103人/km2左右的区域过早死亡人数增加最多;河南省、河北省和四川省O3过早死亡增加人数较其他省份的多。研究结果表明,近年来我国地表大气O3的健康危害的增加程度远大于O3浓度的增加程度,应尽快加强对O3污染的控制。

    Abstract:

    Surface ozone(O3) pollution poses a very serious threat to human health. O3 pollution in China has been deteriorating since 2013. To evaluate the changes in O3 pollution and its health effects in China from 2014 to 2018, this study utilized a novel data fusion method that combined surface monitoring observations, air quality model predictions and satellite retrieval data to obtain surface O3 concentrations and spatial distributions, and then used the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) model to estimate the number of O3-related premature mortality in China in 2014 and 2018. The results showed that the annual average maximum daily 8-hour average O3 (O3-MDA8) concentration in 2018 (45.75 ppb) increased by 11.5%, compared to that in 2014 (41.02 ppb). The number of O3-related premature mortality in 2014 and 2018 was 170 and 267 thousand, respectively, which increased by 57%. Among the nine regions in China, Central China had the largest increase in O3 concentration and related premature deaths compared with the other regions, and the areas with population density of 103 people / km2 had the largest increase in premature deaths. Henan, Hebei and Sichuan provinces had the most increase in O3 premature deaths. The results demonstrated that the increasing degree of O3-related premature mortality is significantly greater than that of O3 concentration. O3 pollution control in China is urgent, especially in populous regions such as Central China.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-02-06
  • 最后修改日期:2021-04-02
  • 录用日期:2021-04-30
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