江淮流域夏季低频降水的前期预报信号
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(41975085);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1505604);气象预报业务关键技术发展专项(YBGJXM(2020)4A-09);河北省“三三三”人才工程;公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406001)


Forecast signal of summer low-frequency precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin
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    摘要:

    基于ERA-Interim逐日4时次再分析资料和753站逐日降水资料,对1980—2013年江淮流域夏季降水特征进行分析,探究江淮流域夏季低频降水的前期预报信号,结果表明:1)江淮流域夏季降水受10~30 d低频振荡影响显著,10~30 d低频分量在江淮流域夏季降水中占较大比重。2)200 hPa上,低频降水过程发生前9~6 d有低频反气旋(低频气旋)自青藏高原东北部向中国东部移动。500 hPa上超前低频降水过程9 d至低频降水过程发生时有西太副高自东向西(自西向东)移动至中国东部沿海地区,热带地区负(正)低频OLR中心不断向北移动,最北端到达江淮流域并达到最强,进而促进(抑制)江淮流域低频降水的发生。3)青藏高原预报信号能够有效补充西太副高及热带OLR信号的不足,将青藏高原信号、西太副高信号及热带OLR信号作为综合预报因子对江淮流域降水进行预报,对仅依赖低纬度地区信号进行降水过程预报的准确率有较好改进作用。

    Abstract:

    In this study,based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data taken four times a day and daily precipitation data from 753 stations throughout China,the characteristics of summer precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin from 1980 to 2013 are analyzed.The forecast signal of summer low-frequency precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin is explored.The results show the following:1) The 10—30 days low frequency precipitation,which occupies a large proportion in the summer precipitation,can influence the summer precipitation over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin.2) At 200 hPa,there is a low-frequency anticyclone moving from the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau to eastern China 9—6 days before the low-frequency precipitation process occurs.At 500 hPa,the Western Pacific Subtropical High moves from east to west,reaching the eastern coastal areas of China 9 days before the occurrence of the low-frequency precipitation events.The center of negative low frequency OLR in the tropics moves northward and reaches the strongest point when its northern most tip reaches the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin.The above circulation distribution will promote the occurrence of the low-frequency precipitation in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin,or vice versa.3) The Tibetan Plateau prediction signal can effectively supplement the deficiency of the West Pacific Subtropical High and the Tropical OLR Signal.The accuracy of precipitation process prediction relying only on the low latitude signals can be improved by using the Tibetan Plateau Signal,the Western Pacific Subtropical High Signal and the Tropical OLR Signal as the comprehensive predictors.

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韩世茹,周须文,车少静,王志强.2021.江淮流域夏季低频降水的前期预报信号【J】大气科学学报.44.2:199.208

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  • 收稿日期:2018-02-27
  • 最后修改日期:2018-06-11
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-04-25
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