近30a全球气象水文灾害演变特征分析
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1.国家气象中心;2.中国气象局公共气象服务中心;3.南京信息工程大学

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国家重点研发计划(2020YFE0201900);国家自然科学(41975100);国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502004)


Analysis of Evolution Characteristics of Global Meteorological and Hydrological Disasters during Recent 30a
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1.National Meteorological Center;2.Public Meteorological Service Centre of China Meteorological Administration;3.Nanjing University of Information Science Technology;4.China

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    摘要:

    本文根据全球紧急灾害数据库(EM-DAT),利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Pettitt、Buishand和SNHT突变检验等方法分析了1990-2019年全球及中国气象水文灾害的趋势及突变特征。结果表明:1)近30a全球洪水灾害和极端气温灾害的发生次数呈显著增加趋势;全球洪水灾害年死亡人数呈显著的减少趋势,而风暴灾害的经济损失存在显著上升趋势。2)多种突变检验方法一致表明,全球极端气温灾害和洪水灾害年发生频次均在1999年发生了显著的突变;2000年以来极端气温和洪水灾害平均发生次数约是前10a(1990-1999年)的2倍。3)根据EM-DAT数据,近30a中国洪水灾害发生频次在1999年前后出现由少到多的转折,但是年死亡人数却在1999年前后出现反向的突变。相比于全球,近30a中国风暴灾害及洪水灾害的年死亡人数下降的趋势更显著。此外,与全球类似,中国风暴灾害的年经济损失呈长期增加趋势,且趋势更为显著,2012年是风暴灾害经济损失显著的突变点。

    Abstract:

    This study analyzed temporal variation and change-point of meteorological and hydrological disasters over world and china during 1990-2019 based on the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT).using Mann-kendall trend test, Pettit, Buishand and SNHT change-point test. Results show that: 1) both the frequencies of floods and extreme temperature disasters increased significantly in the past 30a. Global annual deaths caused by flood disasters significantly declined while the economic losses caused by storm disasters increased remarkably. 2) multiple change-point tests all reveal that change points in frequency of both extreme temperature and flood disasters are 1999; the average numbers of their disasters after 2000 are around 2 times of those during previous 10a (1990-1999). 3) according to EM-DAT, there is a transition at around 1999 to more flood disasters in China in recent 30a but annual deaths display an opposite transition in 1999. The decreasing trend in the deaths caused by storm disasters as well as flood disasters in China are more significant compared to those on the global scale. Additionally, increasing trend in the economic losses caused by storm disasters in China is similar to that on the global scale but the trend is more prominent. The significant change point of economic losses caused by storm disaster in China is in 2012.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-01-07
  • 最后修改日期:2021-05-07
  • 录用日期:2021-05-11
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