1951-2017年冬季我国南方持续性冰冻雨雪事件气候特征及与环流组合性异常的联系
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1.南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院;2.南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;3.①南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院;4.②南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Climate characteristics and related factor analysis of long-term frozen rain and snow events in south China during the winter from 1951 to 2017
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1.Nanjing University of Information Science &2.Technology

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    摘要:

    本文使用国家气象信息中心提供的753站1950-2018年逐日气温、降水数据及NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,确定了1951-2017年冬季我国南方强持续性冰冻雨雪事件,对其时空特征、区划及事件爆发日环流特征进行了综合分析,结果表明:1)我国南方持续性冰冻雨雪事件存在显著的2-3年周期性变化,1985年前后发生了突变,虽然近年来强度呈显著减弱趋势,但仍然发生了多次强持续性冰冻雨雪事件;2)持续性冰冻雨雪事件在我国南方中西部发生频次高、持续日数长,而我国南方中东部强度更强;3)我国南方37次强持续性冰冻雨雪事件可分为华中型、华南型、西南型三类;4)三类持续性冰冻雨雪事件爆发日环流北方高空均呈现欧亚大陆北高南低的位势高度异常,低空蒙古高压显著偏强、中心南进,该配置有利于北方冷空气向南输送;南方南支槽显著加深,水汽向北输送活跃。三者不同在于蒙古高压强度及影响范围存在差异,西南型最强、范围最大、南伸显著,华南型次之;华中型、华南型水汽输送由南支槽和副热带高压共同影响,西南型事件水汽则仅由南支槽调控。以上结论可为我国南方持续性冰冻雨雪事件的前兆信号研究提供借鉴。

    Abstract:

    This study is mainly used daily temperature and precipitation data from 753 stations during 1950-2018 provided by the China National Meteorological Information Center and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, to research strong persistent frozen rain and snow events in south of China in winter from 1951 to 2018 and analyze the spatial-temporal feature, regionalism, atmosphere facto of strong events. The result of study illustrated that: 1) The strong persistent frozen rain and snow events in southern china have a significant 2-3 years periodic variation and there was a mutation around 1985, although it was showed a decrease trend during the whole period, there were still several strong events happened in this years. 2) Persistent frozen rain and snow events occur more frequently and longer continued days in the central and western parts of South China, while the intensity is stronger in the central and eastern parts of South China than that in other area in South China. 3) 37 strong persistent frozen rain and snow events in south China could be divided into three types: southwest china type events, central china type events, south china type events. all the three types of events, the northern upper air shows the anomalous geopotropic height of the Eurasian continent with high in north and low in south. The low-altitude Mongolia high is significantly stronger than the average and the center moves southward. This configuration is conducive to the transmission of cold air from the north to the south. The southern support trough was significantly deepener and the water vapor transported to the north was active. The three types are different in intensity and influence range of Mongolian high pressure, the southwest type is the strongest, the range is the largest, and the extend to south area significantly, followed by the South type. The transport of central and South China type water vapor is influenced by the south trough and subtropical high, while the southwest type event water vapor is only controlled by the South trough. Above conclusions can provide reference for the research on the precursor signals of persistent frozen rain and snow events in South of China.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-11-12
  • 最后修改日期:2021-03-22
  • 录用日期:2021-03-23
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