澜沧江—湄公河流域径流与气候因子变化的季节差异特征研究
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1.南京信息工程大学;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所

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中国科学院战略先导A 类专项(XDA23090102);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(41421004)


Study on the Seasonal Different Characteristics of Streamflow and Climate Factors in Lancang-Mekong River Basin
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Affiliation:

1.Nanjing University of Information Science &2.Technology;3.Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing

Fund Project:

Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No: XDA23090102); Science Fund for Creative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No: 41421004)

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    摘要:

    根据DELWARE温度和降水数据、GLDAS蒸散发数据和湄公河干流9个水文站的实测径流,采用回归分析、均值T检验和低通滤波,分析了该流域气候和径流在1950—2017年间的变化情况,经分析表明流域内气候和径流在研究时段内有较大变化,而且在不同的月份呈现不同的变化特征。流域年平均温度整体呈增加趋势,2008年后的平均温度相对2008年前平均温度有显著增加;流域年平均降水的变化幅度不大;流域平均蒸散发在1月呈下降趋势,其它月份均呈增加趋势,2008—2017年月平均蒸散发与1950—2007年月平均蒸散发相比大幅提升,尤其是在6月—10月;湄公河流域年径流没有显著变化,但径流在12月—4月呈上升趋势,7月—10月呈下降趋势,其中,上升趋势比下降趋势显著,1月—4月径流上升趋势在2008年之后更为显著;最小径流在2008年后有显著增加趋势,最大径流在2008年后呈下降趋势;年流量逆转次数自上世纪90年代起有明显升高趋势。通过比较温度、降水、蒸散发和径流在不同时间段的变化情况,可以看出径流在2008年后变化趋势和气候自然变化关系不显著,但可能跟大坝蓄水能力显著提高等人为活动有较大关系。

    Abstract:

    Based on DELWARE temperature and precipitation data, GLDAS evapotranspiration data, and measured streamflow from 9 hydrological stations on the mainstream of the Mekong River, regression analysis, T test and the Low-pass filter were used to analyze the climate and streamflow changes in the basin during the period of 1950—2007 and 2008—2017. The results show that the average temperature of the basin is increasing. After 2008, the temperature has increased significantly. The average precipitation in the basin has changed little. The average evapotranspiration in the basin has a downward trend in January, and has an increasing trend in other months. The average evapotranspiration in 2008—2017 has increased significantly compared with the average evapotranspiration in 1950—2007 (June—October). The annual streamflow in the basin do not change significantly, but the streamflow shows an upward trend in December—April, and a downward trend in July—October after 2008. The upward trend is more obvious than the downward trend, and the upward trend in January—April is more significant after 2008. For the yearly minimum streamflow, there is a significant increase trend after 2008, and the maximum streamflow shows a downward trend after 2008. The flow reversals have increased significantly since 1990. By comparing the changes of runoff changes in these three different time periods, it can be seen that the streamflow changes significantly when climate does not change significantly. The trend of streamflow may be related to the dam construction and water storage capacity (Man-made activities).

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  • 收稿日期:2020-10-31
  • 最后修改日期:2020-11-09
  • 录用日期:2020-11-11
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