气候变化背景下中国陆地水循环时空演变
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1.南京信息工程大学;2.北京市气象探测中心;3.国家气候中心;4.云南省临沧市气象局;5.西北农林科技大学资源环境学院;6.河北省气象灾害防御中心

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国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603701)国家自然科学基金项目(41907398,41801017)


Impact of Climate Change on Terrestrial Hydrological Cycle in China
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1.Nanjing University of Information Science &2.Technology;3.Beijing Meteorological Observation Center;4.National Climate Center;5.Lincang Meteorological Bureau;6.College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest Agriculture and Forest University;7.Hebei Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center

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    摘要:

    水循环是气候系统各子系统相互作用过程中一个最活跃的枢纽,受气候变化影响显著。本文采用观测和多套再分析数据,系统分析了1979年以来中国及各大流域大气水汽含量、降水、蒸散发和地表径流等水循环要素变化。研究发现,1979~2018年,中国陆地整层大气水汽含量和水汽收支呈显著上升趋势;水汽收支除在松花江和西南诸河略有下降,其余流域均呈上升趋势;降水除西北诸河流域呈现显著上升趋势外,其余流域变化不显著;蒸散发整体呈微弱增加,但南方大部流域呈现显著的减小趋势;除西北诸河径流显著上升趋势外,北方大部分流域地表径流呈现减少趋势,而南方流域的径流变化趋势复杂多样。相对1979~2000年,21世纪以来中国气温上升约0.63℃,大气水汽含量增加1.2%,年平均降水量增加0.5%,水汽总输入和输出量均减小,降水再循环率增加10.9%。进入21世纪,中国陆地水资源一级分区内循环均较前20年活跃,降水再循环率除松花江和辽河流域外,均有所增加。其中,海河、黄河、淮河和西北诸河流域的水汽和蒸发形成的降水都有所增加;辽河流域蒸发形成的降水有所增加,但输入水汽减少导致流域降水减少最多;松花江、长江、珠江和西南诸河流域蒸发形成的降水增加,输入水汽减少导致降水略有减少;东南诸河蒸发形成的降水略有增加,但整体变化不大。

    Abstract:

    Hydrological cycle is one of the most active and important part in the interaction among ocean, land and atmosphere which is significantly affected by climate change. This paper evaluates the changes of water cycle elements such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff and water vapor in China and ten river basins since 1979. From 1961 to 2018, the surface air temperature showed a significant upward trend in China, and the atmospheric water vapor and water vapor budget showed a significant increase trend. While in Ten basins, the atmospheric water vapor showing a significant downward trend in the Huaihe Basin, a significant upward trend in the Yellow River Basin and the Northwest River Basins, and other basins show no obvious changes. Except for the Songhua River Basin and the Southwest River Basin, the water vapor budget showed an upward trend in the rest of the basins. Except for the Northwest River Basin, which the precipitation increased significant, the changes of precipitation in other basins were not significant. Actual evapotranspiration increased slightly, mainly in the western and northeast basins of China. In addition to the Yellow River Basin and the Northwest River Basin, the surface runoff of most basins in northern China shows a decreasing trend, while that in the southern basins is complex. Compared with 1979-2000, the temperature in China increased by about 0.63 ℃ from 2000 to 2018, while the atmospheric water vapor increased about 1.2%, the precipitation increased about 0.5%, the inflow and outflow water vapor decreased, the actual evapotranspiration decreased slightly, the precipitation recycling ratio increased by 10.9%. The internal hydrological circulation of the ten basins is more active than that before 21th, the precipitation recycling ratio increased except Songhua and Liaohe River basin. The precipitation of Haihe, Yellow, Huaihe and Northwest River Basin has increased due to the external and internal hydrological circulation of the basin were more active. Although the precipitation formed by evapotranspiration of Songhua, Laio, Yangtze, Pearl and Yangtze and Southwest River basins has increased, the precipitation in the basins has decreased due to the decrease of inflow water vapor. The precipitation formed by evapotranspiration of Southeast River Basin has slightly increased, but the overall change of precipitation was not significant.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-10-14
  • 最后修改日期:2020-11-05
  • 录用日期:2020-11-11
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