全球增温1.5℃和2℃下中国东部极端高温风险预估
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1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/应用气象学院;2.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心

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国家重点研发计划项目


Risk of extreme high temperature in eastern China under 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming levels
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1.Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Applied Meteorology;2.Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters

Fund Project:

National Key Research and Development Project

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    摘要:

    2013年我国中东部经历了一次破纪录的极端高温,给社会经济以及人民财产带来了严重的损失。本文利用了高分辨率的观测格点数据集以及参与CMIP5的17个全球气候模式数据,通过分位数映射的偏差订正方法对模式模拟的逐日最高温度数据进行了订正,在此基础上,研究了2013年的破纪录极端高温以及多年(20年,50年和100年)一遇极端高温在未来全球增温1.5℃和2℃下的风险。结果表明在未来增温1.5℃/2℃下,2013年极端高温日数的发生风险将会增加3.0倍/6.1倍,极端高温强度增加5.6倍/12.6倍。0.5℃增温将会使2013年极端高温日数和强度在未来的发生风险分别增加2.3倍和2.0倍。对于不同重现期的极端高温来说,越极端的极端高温在未来发生的风险越大,并且极端高温日数增加的风险要大于极端高温强度增加的风险。历史时期平均20年/100年发生一次的极端高温日数在未来增温1.5℃下将会变为平均每4年/15年发生一次,在增温2℃下变为平均2年/6年发生一次。历史时期20年/100年一遇的极端高温强度在未来增温1.5℃下将会变为7年/27年一遇,未来增温2℃下变为4年/8年一遇。研究结果可以为应对气候变化政策制定提供科学基础。

    Abstract:

    The central and eastern part of China experienced a record-breaking extreme high temperature in 2013, which caused serious losses to the lives of residents and the social economy. We used daily maximum temperature from CN05.1 and 17 global climate model data participating in CMIP5 to research the risk changes of such extreme temperature as well as extreme temperature with long return period (20-year, 50-year and 100-year)under 1.5℃ and 2℃ global warming levels. A bias-corrected method was applied to the simulated maximum daily temperature of CMIP5 models. Results show that the bias correction can significantly reduce the biases of the simulated maximum temperature, the risk of occurrence of extreme high temperature days in 2013 will increase by 3.0/6.1 times under 1.5℃/2℃, the intensity of extreme temperature will increase by 5.6/12.6 times at 1.5℃/ 2℃. For extreme high temperatures with different return periods, the rarer high temperatures have larger increase of risk in the future, and the risk of days of extreme temperature received greater changes than the risk of intensity of extreme temperature. The days of extreme temperature that occurred once in 20 years in the historical period will become once in 4 years at the 1.5°C global warming level, and will become once in 2 years at 2°C. However, the intensity of extreme temperature once in 20 years in the historical period will become once in 7 years at the 1.5°C global warming level in the future, and once in 4 years at 2℃.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-10-11
  • 最后修改日期:2020-11-03
  • 录用日期:2020-11-04
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