青藏高原三江源地区近60年气候与极端气候变化特征分析
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1.①复旦大学 大气与海洋科学系;2.②南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院

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第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究”专项(2019QZKK0105)


Changes of climate and climate extremes in the Three-Rivers` Headwaters’ region over the Tibetan Plateau during the past 60 years
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1.Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,Fudan University;2.School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science Technology;3.China

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    摘要:

    青藏高原三江源地区正在面临着以“变暖变湿”为主的气候变化,是气候变化的显著区与敏感区。基于中国气象局位于三江源地区20个地面台站的气温、降水数据以及CRU气温、PREC降水资料,本文从气候要素空间格局、极端气候指标以及区域-全球平均多年变化对比等3个方面系统总结了三江源地区1961-2019年气候和极端气候变化的特征。结果显示,三江源区域在过去近60年里平均增暖速率为0.37 °C/10a,是全球平均水平(0.16 °C/10a)的2倍以上,同时大幅高于全球同纬度(0.19 °C/10a)及中国区域(0.28 °C/10a)。在全球变暖背景下,三江源地区大部分极端气候指标上升,其中以夜间最低气温的上升(0.55 °C/10a)最为显著,且极端高温事件的出现频率上升,区域日温差减小、气温变化极端性增强。三江源近60年温湿气候态的空间格局为沿西北-东南方向的正温湿梯度,其变化趋势存在自西向东速率上升的暖湿化空间分异特征。本文的研究结论进一步揭示了三江源地区近60年气候变化与极端气候的时空格局,为三江源地区气候系统和生态系统的脆弱性研究以及未来气候变化预估提供了科学依据,同时也为气候变化敏感的高寒地区对全球变暖的响应研究提供了对比案例。

    Abstract:

    The Three Rivers` Headwaters region is significant and sensitive to climate change, facing with climate change that characterized as “warming and wetting”. From perspectives of spatial pattern, climate extreme indices and comparison among regional-global climate variations, we investigated the characteristics of climate variations and climate extremes in the Three Rivers` Headwaters region over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2019. Temperature and precipitation observations are obtained from 20 meteorological stations of China Meteorological Administration and HadCRUT4 as well as NOAA Precipitation Reconstruction datasets. It is revealed that the spatial averaged warming rate is 0.37 °C/10a, which has been more than the global level (0.16 °C/10a) during the nearly past 60 years, which is also significantly higher than the same latitude (0.19 °C/10a) and China region (0.28 °C/10a). Under the background of climate warming, most of the extreme climate indices in the Three Rivers` Headwaters region have risen, and the most significant rise is night extreme high temperature (0.55 °C/10a), suggesting the extremeness of regional climate has increased. The spatial pattern of temperature and precipitation during the nearly past 60 years possesses a positive gradient along the northwest-southeast direction, and its changing trend is characterized by the spatial differentiation of warming and humidification with a rising rate from west to east. Furthermore, the temporal-spatial patterns of climate change and climate extremes in the Three Rivers` Headwaters region can provide a conclusive basis for the research on the vulnerability of climate systems and ecosystems in this region. At the same time, this study also provides a comparative case for studies on the response of climate -sensitive alpine regions to global warming.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-10-08
  • 最后修改日期:2020-11-02
  • 录用日期:2020-11-03
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