青藏高原及其周边地区降水的水汽来源变化研究进展
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1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;2.中国科学院大学;3.中国科学院青藏高原研究所环境变化与地表过程重点实验室;4.三峡大学水利与环境学院;5.复旦大学大气与海洋科学系/大气科学研究院;6.Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University;7.Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg

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中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20060402);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0208);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41730645)


A review on the study of moisture source of precipitation and its variation over the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings
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1.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;3.Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences;4.College of Hydraulic and Environmental engineering, China Three Gorges University;5.Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University;6.Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University;7.Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg

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    摘要:

    近几十年来,随着全球气候变暖,青藏高原降水整体呈现增加趋势,气候暖湿化趋势明显。与此同时,位于青藏高原东南缘的中国西南地区整体上呈现暖干化趋势,干旱事件频发。探讨青藏高原及其周边地区降水的水汽来源变化、揭示降水趋势性变化的原因已经成为当前研究热点。本文评述了近年来青藏高原降水的水汽来源研究,重点关注青藏高原变湿、西南地区变干的水汽来源变化原因以及青藏高原南北水汽来源差异,讨论了尚未解决的科学问题及展望了未来研究方向。现有研究表明,青藏高原以西的西风带控制区蒸散发贡献的水汽整体呈现减少趋势,青藏高原以南和以东的季风控制区蒸散发贡献的水汽整体呈现增加趋势,上述水汽源区贡献变化导致青藏高原及其周边不同区域降水趋势性变化的差异。展望未来,水汽来源分析的模型和数据需要进一步验证及减少不确定性,青藏高原下垫面和蒸散发变化对周边地区降水的影响机制研究有待加强,全球变化与青藏高原降水水汽来源变化的关系尚需深入分析。

    Abstract:

    This paper provides a comprehensive review of recent studies on the moisture sources of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings, focusing on the characteristics of moisture sources (regions of evaporation) for precipitation, spatiotemporal changes in the contribution of moisture sources to precipitation, and the causes of changes in moisture source associated with the recent wetting trend over the Tibetan Plateau and drying trend in Southwest China which lies on the southeastern corner of the Tibetan Plateau. The existing studies show that the moisture transports from the west by the northern hemispheric middle latitude Westerlies and from the southwest by the Indian summer monsoon contributed the most to precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. The moisture transports from the west shows a decreasing trend while that from the southwest and the east shows an overall increasing trend in the past three decades. The enhanced water vapor transport from the monsoon regions and the intensified local hydrological recycling is the primary reasons behind the recent wetting trend over the Tibetan Plateau, while the reduced water vapor transport from the regions dominated by the Westerlies is the main factor that causes the drying trend on the southeastern corner of the Tibetan Plateau. The challenges and future directions for understanding the variation of moisture source of precipitation over the extended Tibetan Plateau area are then discussed. Firstly, the observational evidence of the variation of moisture source is still lacking. There is a need to reduce uncertainty of the moisture source estimates through integration of model and observations. Secondly, the changes in glacier, lake, and vegetation over the Tibetan Plateau and the associated changes in evapotranspiration would affect water vapor transport and recycling. There is a need to quantify the interactions between land surface change and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings from the perspective of water vapor sources. Thirdly, the enhanced moisture supply from the monsoons and reduced moisture supply from the Westerlies could be linked to climate change as the projection of future precipitation changes under a warming world showed the same pattern as the past three decades, i.e. a wetting trend over the Tibetan Plateau and drying trend on the southeastern corner. However, further research is needed to under-stand the linkages between global change and moisture source variations over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-10-03
  • 最后修改日期:2020-11-10
  • 录用日期:2020-11-11
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